Daily Racing Form expert analysts David Aragona and Kenny Peck handicap the Saturday, October 31 Breeders’ Cup racing card fron Keeneland.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint
Keeneland, Race 4, 1:10 p.m. ET
David Aragona: It’s hard for me to look past the two protagonists on the win end here, though I give EXPLORA the slight edge over morning-line favorite WAYS AND MEANS. The Baffert-trained 3-year-old filly has proven that she’s at her best going this seven-furlong distance, and she’s taken her show on the road from California to Kentucky to New York. Her Test form gives her a real chance to pull off the minor upset, and I’m not too concerned about her short-priced loss last time. She drew the rail, got engaged in a duel, and gamely fought off a rival who came back to win the Grade 2 Raven Run. Ways and Means has obviously run faster on the Beyer scale, and I don’t want to get too caught up in the narrative around her being a Saratoga horse for course. I’m more concerned about her drawing an inside post in a race with plenty of speed while Explora is perfectly positioned outside of all those forward runners.
Kenny Peck: FOIE GRAS doesn’t have the Beyers of WAYS AND MEANS, but she will be about 10 times the price in the Filly and Mare Sprint and could be the right value play given her form and the expected race flow. She is obviously stepping way up off that easy Charles Town score and has not faced a field nearly as good as this, but she should get the trip and her lack of Grade 1 seasoning is mitigated by the price. There’s no two ways about it, Ways and Means is going to be a handful, as she has the best Beyers and should be well set up. The light price is the lone knock. R DISASTER is one of the likely pacesetters and perhaps the main threat among that group. She beat the favorite back in May when able to shake loose early on. NOONI draws wide but can rate. She is perhaps capable of a big piece if she works out a clean outside stalking trip.
Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint
Keeneland, Race 5, 1:48 p.m. ET
David Aragona: It cannot be overstated just how much early speed has made it into this race. Something has to give up front, so I’m focusing on contenders who have proven they can rate and finish. The best price of my potential win candidates is SORRENTO SKY, who has been supplemented to this race and comes here in career form now as a 5-year-old. He has gained newfound consistency since he was gelded back in the spring and seems perfectly suited to this pace setup. COMANCHE BRAVE is another who figures to get the right trip, albeit at a much shorter price. His recent form in Europe is excellent, and he can rally through traffic. CY FAIR is another who has proven she’s best when she gets held up and utilizes her terrific turn of foot down the lane. I don’t care about the Kentucky Downs loss, given her trip, and this is a better distance anyway. Even 2024 winner STARLUST isn’t without a chance.
Kenny Peck: COMANCHE BRAVE has won three of his last four, and though he hasn’t tried this exact distance, he’s won at five and at six furlongs. He was impressive in the Flying Five Stakes in his latest and can win the Turf Sprint just as he did that one with another strong late run. YELLOW CARD has been idle since May, but he is another who stands to benefit from a quick, contested pace. He rallied from well back two and three back after enduring slow starts, but he’s probably at his best when closer early on. CY FAIR has lots of room to improve off her latest, when traffic trouble cost her her best chance. Her prior Beyers give her strong credibility. BACIO is the one to catch and beat as he seeks his sixth win in seven career starts, but he will face early pressure in his first try beyond five furlongs; looking to beat him as the favorite.
Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile
Keeneland, Race 6, 2:26 p.m. ET
David Aragona: The Americans in here aren’t exactly a reliable bunch, so let me highlight an underrated Japanese contender. LORD FONS is no slouch, having won 8 of 21 dirt starts over in Japan. He has traded decisions with multiple Grade 1-placed Wilson Tesoro in recent starts over there, so he has the class to fit with these. His style fits this pace scenario as a midpack runner. Notably, his recent win at seven furlongs in June came around two turns, so he should have no trouble handling the short stretch at Keeneland. FULL SERRANO won this race in 2024. Perhaps he isn’t quite as sharp as he was back then, but this year’s field isn’t as strong as your typical Breeders’ Cup race. He should have gotten needed fitness out of that duel with Knightsbridge last time and is in better form than it might appear. BRACKET BUSTER did get an unlucky trip last time at Parx Racing, but I also don’t totally trust him to reproduce his 108 Beyer from Mountaineer.
Kenny Peck: IRON MAN CAL was on the lead in the Pat O’Brien and was game to win it, but he has proven in the past that he can take back off the pace and make one run. That may be what it takes for him to win the Dirt Mile. He’s only had two tries on dirt but ran well in both of them. If CHUNK OF GOLD can get clear and control the tempo, he can steal this. The slight cutback is a concern in that regard, but he could be quickest in the opening stages. FURTHER ADO was aided by a favorable race flow in the Pennsylvania Derby and grabbed the place with a late run, posting an improved Beyer. He is dangerous, given a similar setup. BRACKET BUSTER is probably not as good as the 108 Beyer two back implies, but he’s better than what he showed last time; third start off the layoff here.
Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf
Keeneland, Race 7, 3:04 p.m. ET
David Aragona: After considering many American possibilities, I ultimately kept coming back around to the idea that the two European heavy hitters are just too strong for this field to handle. PRECISE has been beaten by BLUE BOLT on three occasions this season, but the 1 3/16-mile distance could bring them closer together. Precise had no problem stretching out to 1 1/4 miles in the Prix de l’Opera last time, only beaten by a highly progressive rival. She got close to Blue Bolt this summer and appears to be back at her peak powers now following a poor effort in the Matron. Connections clearly believe she’s suited to America, having brought her for last year’s race only to get scratched. Blue Bolt is not to be taken lightly, and physically you wouldn’t have too many doubts about her handling this trip. She’s just been campaigned as such a specialist, and it’s unwise to take a horse trying something new as the favorite.
Kenny Peck: The big (only?) question of this Filly and Mare Turf is whether BLUE BOLT handles the extra ground. She draws wide but has the speed to gain position in the long run to the first turn yet also has a powerful closing kick, which has led to victories in all of her six starts in 2026. She’s also been visually impressive. She ships to the United States for the first time, but her main threat may be PRECISE, a filly she’s beaten in three of those six starts. Precise was a good second at a similar distance in her latest, despite a slow start. She obviously would benefit if the favorite fails to stay the distance. RED LETTER ran well in defeat in her latest, just missing the place late. She should be well placed just off the speeds. JANCIS and Gimme a Nother both closed well in the E.P. Taylor behind soft splits.
Breeders’ Cup Sprint
Keeneland, Race 8, 3:42 p.m. ET
David Aragona: This is another race where I couldn’t get past the two shortest prices, but I do have a strong preference. I’m viewing T O ELVIS as a serious threat to upset his 3-year-old rival. This horse’s turn of foot on Derby Day was devastating, but that effort should have come as no shock to anyone familiar with his prior races in Japan. He sat relatively close to a moderate pace at Churchill, but he had been a closing sprinter in his prior six-furlong races overseas. That’s exactly the running style this race calls for. Yes, he’s off a layoff, but he’s been intentionally campaigned to be at his best when fresh. There is a ton of speed in this race, so it’s good news for ENGLISHMAN that he’s drawn widest of them all. I just think he’s a touch overrated based on wins against weaker 3-year-old rivals. He’s a brilliant talent, but so is his Japanese rival. I don’t see much, if any, gap in ability between them, and one figures to get the better setup.
Kenny Peck: To the surprise of no one, there’s a plethora of early speed in the Sprint, and that can work to the advantage of BUILT. He was close up from the outset in the Louisville Thoroughbred Society Stakes last time, but he was farther off the pace than what shows in the first call of his PP line as he rated nicely before making his bid. That type of trip would work nicely here, given the strong possibility of a rapid and pressured pace. T O ELVIS also figures to be well positioned if that pace scenario does develop. He was obviously sharp in the Churchill Downs Stakes on the Derby undercard, making a decisive run at the top of the stretch. ENGLISHMAN is widest, will face pressure, and may be better going longer. He obviously can win, but at a short price, I’ll look to beat him. HYMN needs a boost in Beyers, but he should fall into a trip.
Breeders’ Cup Mile
Keeneland, Race 9, 4:20 p.m. ET
David Aragona: My search for an alternative to this favorite took some twists and turns and landed in a strange place. Why is ASK IKIGOMI here? This plan seems nuts – intentionally entering a Breeders’ Cup race off just three prior starts and a significant layoff? It’s so ambitious you almost have to respect it. Keep in mind, his trainer has been here before and gotten a taste of international success. He’s the conditioner of two-time Breeders’ Cup Turf third-place finisher Sharyar and multiple Group 1 winners in Japan. It doesn’t seem like Ask Ikigomi has faced the toughest competition, but he’s a big, strong horse with a powerful stride. He’s the unknown factor in the quest to beat NOTABLE SPEECH, who has proven that he’s better than just about everyone else in this field. LAKE FOREST nearly sucked me in off his less-than-ideal trip at Keeneland last time, but Notable Speech handled him quite easily at York two back. Someone needs to produce a career-best effort to stop last year’s winner from repeating, and I only see one horse with massive upside.
Kenny Peck: LAKE FOREST ran a big race behind Rhetorical in Keeneland’s Coolmore Turf Mile, and he can turn the tables in the BC Mile given a clean trip and an improved race flow as he was up against it chasing that loose-on-the-lead rival through slow splits. A much better setup looms here. NOTABLE SPEECH looks to repeat in this race using the same path he took in 2025, coming off a win (and a 101 Beyer) in the Woodbine Mile. He is easy to like and the one to beat, though he’ll be a relatively short price. FACTEUR CHEVAL, conversely, will be a huge price given the class rise, even though that last Beyer puts him in the thick of this. DETERMINISTIC has been first or second in each of his last 11(!) starts, thanks in large part to his positional speed. He is always a threat, clearly, though he’ll need to work out a clean trip from the hedge.
Breeders’ Cup Distaff
Keeneland, Race 10, 4:58 p.m. ET
David Aragona: For a horse as brilliant and consistent as NITROGEN, she doesn’t seem to get the respect or adulation that her résumé merits. Seemingly every clever handicapper is lining up to bet against her with a horse that she defeated by 13 lengths back in June. To be fair, Nitrogen does have some things working against her here. It’s been a long, hard campaign that included a draining effort against males in the Whitney. She’s also been at her best racing from the front, and there’s other pace in here. I still think she’s better than FULLY SUBSCRIBED when both are at their peak, and at similar prices I have to give the edge to the horse with established class. Fully Subscribed will benefit from any pace that develops, and she has clearly improved since their last matchup. I just think she’s built her recent reputation upon wins against weaker company.
Kenny Peck: NITROGEN was sharp in defeat in the Whitney against the boys two back, and she returned to post another triple-digit Beyer in the Beldame. She was on the lead in both of those races but has proven in the past that she doesn’t necessarily need the lead to win. That could be an important consideration, given the presence of several confirmed speeds to her outside. EUNOMIA is another with the versatility to either lead or rate, and that should enable her to work out a trip. Comes off a game score when last seen and will be a price here. REGALED is more of a stone closer than either of the top two, and she’d benefit greatly from a pace meltdown. She was impressive in the Del Cap last time. FULLY SUBSCRIBED is a model of consistency and fits well in terms of Beyers, though that figure two back was an aberration and Nitrogen walloped her in the Ogden Phipps.
Breeders’ Cup Turf
Keeneland, Race 11, 5:36 p.m. ET
David Aragona: Europeans have dominated this race, and I see nothing among the American contingent that should alter that trend. The Euro that I find most tempting is MAP OF STARS, who ships in from France for one of the best trainers in the world. His European form is a cut below others in here, but he was newly gelded this season and showed a flash of brilliance at Ascot this summer over good-to-firm footing. Notably, he’s been pointed to this for several weeks. Among the trio of horses exiting the Arc, I see no reason why BAY CITY ROLLER shouldn’t be regarded as superior off his stellar runner-up effort. In my view, he had a slightly tougher trip than DIAMOND NECKLACE. Bay City Roller is back on short rest again, but he’s a fighter who never runs a bad race, and his free-running style shouldn’t be hindered by an outside draw. The one other European I want to use is JOHANNA WALSH. She didn’t beat much in the Irish Oaks but impressed with her turn of foot over relatively firm going and just seemed to hate a soft course last time. This seems like an intriguing target for her.
Kenny Peck: BURNHAM SQUARE faded in the Turf Cup at Kentucky Downs in his latest. Though he handled the course last year, it’s easy to forgive any subpar effort over that unique course. His prior efforts make him a contender in the Turf. It is very tough to get a read on the likely race flow for a race like this, but he does have enough speed to stay close early on if need be. BAY CITY ROLLER has been impressive in defeat overseas and is a strong fit today based on his Timeform Ratings. The move back to 1 1/2 miles is a plus. DIAMOND NECKLACE is a sensational filly and has some positional speed of her own. She may be good enough to beat older males, but any edge she does have may not warrant a short price. HOTAZHELL comes into this off a pair of game wins, and he ran a strong race in defeat in his only other U.S. try.
Breeders’ Cup Classic
Keeneland, Race 12, 6:16 p.m. ET
David Aragona: If there’s one horse in this Classic who seems positioned to run a career-best race, it’s GOLDEN TEMPO. While he’s a Kentucky Derby and Belmont winner, he’s still widely regarded as a cut below the main players due to his mediocre speed figures. That’s fair enough, but he’s continued to progress into the fall and seems ready for his next step forward. He had a right to not be at his peak in the Travers due to a brief layoff after the Belmont, and an inside trip through traffic didn’t highlight his strengths. He’s best when he can gradually build momentum outside with a strong pace setup, and he figures to get that opportunity here. I have no major knocks against FOREVER YOUNG, who figures to move forward off his prep in New York. I doubt we see something new from him at this point of his career, but his best efforts obviously put him squarely in the mix. SOVEREIGNTY is the toughest call. His Whitney form should win this, but how sure are we that he can reproduce that effort after a hiccup in his training?
Kenny Peck: SOVEREIGNTY was sensational in the Whitney, and though he had to settle for the show in the Foster, he was chasing a loose leader (Magnitude) in the slop, which is almost never a favorable situation and always a legit excuse. He may well be at his best at this 1 1/4-mile distance, and given the projected pace scenario, he should be ideally positioned from the outset. GOLDEN TEMPO is the prototypical one-run closer, and while that can be a detriment, that’s not the case in this Classic, which features no shortage of pace. He may be good enough to make the last run. FOREVER YOUNG can lead or rate, and that’s an edge. The world-class runner will need to take a step forward off his effort in the Jockey Club Gold Cup to win this, however. T O PASSWORD could pick up a piece at a price if there is a total pace meltdown.
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