Preakness Best Bets
We didn’t fare too well with the Kentucky Derby (obviously a tough task with the 20-horse field as we weren’t alone in not including Mystik Dan on our tickets at 18-1) here in the Tuley’s Takes office, but we’re excited about Saturday’s Preakness at Pimlico Race Course in Maryland.
#5 Mystik Dan is obviously the only three-year-old with a chance to win the Triple Crown after his gutty victory by a nose over Sierra Leone.
Sierra Leone isn’t wheeling back for a rematch in the Preakness, nor is third-place finisher Forever Young, who is heading back to Japan. The top Derby runner to take another shot at Mystik Dan is fourth-place finisher #3 Catching Freedom, with the only other returnee being 17th-place finisher #7 Just Steel.
But that doesn’t mean Mystik Dan has a crab-cakewalk (see what I did there?), as so-called “new shooters” have won the last four runnings of the Preakness. The Bob Baffert-trained Muth was the 8-5 morning-line favorite when this field was drawn on Monday, but the son of Good Magic arrived at Pimlico on Tuesday night with a 103-degree temperature and was scratched on Wednesday.
That puts Mystik Dan into the favorite role, but it’s still not a foregone conclusion that he will be able to repeat his Derby victory, especially against some live fresh colts.
The first thing that makes him look like a vulnerable favorite to me is that he followed up his two previous career wins with clunkers as he finished fifth in the race after his maiden victory and then after he won the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn on Feb. 3 to put himself firmly on the Derby Trail, he ran third (to Muth and Just Steel, by the way) in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby.
Kentucky Derby winners often bounce back strong two weeks later (despite the recent success of new shooters), but certainly is no guarantee, so we will try to beat him here.
Tuley’s Preakness Value Pick
I’m a little surprised I haven’t heard more buzz about #9 Imagination, another Baffert trainee, especially with the scratch of Muth.
Baffert would have probably instructed Hall of Fame jockey Frankie Dettori to go to the lead anyway, but with Muth not running, that should offer less resistance to Imagination being the pacesetter, setting comfortable fractions, and having plenty left for the stretch run.
Dettori was aboard when this son of Into Mischief wired the field in the Grade 2 San Felipe at Santa Anita and when he finished second to Stronghold in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. He fits here, and we hope he stays somewhere close to his 6-1 morning-line odds (which stayed the same after the scratch with Mystik Dan being installed as the 5-2 favorite).
I’m not using my imagination here. Don’t get me wrong; I’m using Imagination but not trying to get too creative with how to play this. I’m not even going Win and Place; it’s all or nothing for yours truly.
Preakness Best Bet: Win on #9 Imagination
Other Possible Exotic Horses
OK, I know readers want some other horses to use, and I’m a degenerate, too, and I will be putting together some small tickets in the exacta, trifecta, and superfecta pools, just in case. I was trying to make the point that I feel the best value play is on Imagination to steal the race.
As for those other tickets, I have to include #7 Just Steel. As I alluded to above, this son of Justify finished second ahead of Mystik Dan in the Arkansas Derby, but what I didn’t mention was he also ran second to the Kentucky Derby winner in the Southwest Stakes, so don’t get fooled by that 17th-place finish at Churchill Downs as he’s not a cut too far below Mystik Dan. (In fact, he went off at 21-1 in the Derby compared to 18-1 for the eventual winner, so pretty much as highly regarded).
Just Steel never really got into the Kentucky Derby (which happens all the time with the 20-horse field), and I believe jockey Joel Rosario saved him for another day – this Saturday. To tell the truth, I almost rewrote this article to make Just Steel my value play on top, especially at current odds of 15-1. The only reason I haven’t is that Imagination’s running style suits the speed-favoring Pimlico strip, and I believe he’s the more likely upsetter. Still, I’ll have Win money on No. 7 Just Steel at 10-1 or higher.
Other colts to use in exotics (under those two) would be #2 Uncle Heavy (20-1), as he has the right to return to his form off a fifth-place finish in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, plus #8 Tuscan Gold (8-1), a lightly raced son of Medaglia d’Oro off a third-place finish in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds in Louisiana.
