Tuley’s Thoroughbred Takes – Belmont Stakes Day at Saratoga:
Belmont Weekend continues Saturday with the main event, the Belmont Stakes, featuring the rubber match for Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty and Preakness winner Journalism.
The Belmont Stakes Racing Festival is being held at the Spa in upstate New York for the second straight year during the ongoing construction at Belmont. We’re excited about the race after Dornoch, who was our Derby horse last year but finished up the track, came back to win the Belmont Stakes on the Saratoga strip.
Rain and a sloppy track affected Friday’s races a lot at the Spa (seemed speed-favoring, though a small sample), including the Belmont Gold Cup being taken off the turf. We’ll take all that into account with our handicapping, though nine times out of 10, I still rely on which horses I see that are on the improve and can outrun their odds. But each race is a separate puzzle.
Let’s start with some races on the undercard and then conclude with the Belmont.
Metropolitan Mile (Grade 1, $1 million)
Saratoga Race Course, Race 8, 3:17 p.m. ET
Tuley’s Take: Fierceness finished 15th as the Derby favorite last year but came back to win the Grade 1 Travers over this track at Saratoga. He’s running here as the even-money morning-line favorite, but I’m calling for the upset with #4 Just A Touch. The son of Triple Crown winner Justify finished dead last of 20 colts in the Derby last year but was basically pulled up after being bumped early. He has fired in every other start. I think the cutback to a mile distance will help him wire the field. I don’t usually bet 4-1 horses, but with just a five-horse field. I feel we’re getting true odds with the lone speed.
Wagers: #4 Just a Touch to Win.
Woody Stephens Stakes (Grade 1, $500,000)
Saratoga Race Course, Race 11, 5:28 p.m. ET
Tuley’s Take: Bob Baffert’s Citizen Bull broke erratically from the No. 1 post in the Kentucky Derby but still went the opening quarter in :22 4/ 5 and led after a half-mile before giving way. He’ll be a major threat to go wire-to-wire in this seven-furlong race for 3-year-olds as Baffert enters him instead of the Belmont Stakes. However, 5-1 is too short of a Win price for me, though I wouldn’t talk anyone else out of playing it. There will be others pressing the pace early in this shorter race, and I feel the top value play is another Baffert colt, #2 Madaket Road, at 10-1. Madaket Road should be sitting right off the pace and hopefully pick up the pieces as the dueling front-runners fade. But I’m still going to use Citizen Bull in my exotics, including a Trifecta Wheel where I’m hoping for the Baffert uncoupled entry to run 1-2 or get split 1st and 3rd in the Tri (with hopefully another price horse hitting the board to boost the payout).
Wagers: #2 Madaket Road to Win (and Place if 10-1 or higher), plus Trifecta Wheel 2,5 with 2,5 with ALL and also 2,5 with ALL with 2,5.
Belmont Stakes (Grade 1, $2 million)
Saratoga Race Course, Race 13, 7:04 p.m. ET
Tuley’s Take: Even with no Triple Crown on the line, all eyes are on the rematch of Kentucky Derby winner #2 Sovereignty and Preakness winner #7 Journalism. Both are obviously very live as their connections know they need a win here to put a stronghold on the top of the 3-year-old class. However, I’m calling for the upset with #6 Baeza, the third betting choice on the morning line at 4-1, throwing his hat in the 3-year-old divisional race after finishing third in the Derby. Baeza drew into the Derby from the also-eligible list and had more trouble than the top two but still finished 1 3/4 lengths behind Sovereignty and just a neck behind Journalism. He should have much fewer traffic woes in the Belmont (with eight runners as opposed to 19 in the Derby) and be able to sit comfortably off the pace (probably will be set by Baffert’s Rodriguez and/or Bobby Flay’s Crudo) and get first run on the two closers this time.
Interesting note: I didn’t even know this until after finishing my handicapping, but Baeza is a half-brother to last year’s Belmont winner Dornoch, so that only reinforces my belief that Baeza is the value play. Instead of betting to Win, I’ll key Baeza on top of the other seven colts in Trifectas and hope to get anyone but Sovereignty or Journalism to blow up the tote board.
Wagers: #6 Baeza keyed on top in a Trifecta Key on 6 w/ ALL w/ ALL ($1 tri key costs $42 if eight horses run).
