Tuley’s Thoroughbred Takes: Kentucky Derby Day at Churchill Downs:
The Kentucky Derby is here, one of our favorite days of the year here in the Tuley’s Takes home office
As we wrote in the VSiN Betting Guide, it’s a rite of spring just like the baseball season and the Masters. I also wrote that the most likely winner is Journalism, the 3-1 morning-line favorite who is coming into the Run for the Roses off a victory in the Santa Anita Derby.
If you know me (and I hope you do), I’m not a chalk-eater and am always looking for live long shots in horse racing just like my “dog or pass” plays in other sports. The beauty of the Derby is that these are still young, developing colts, just like teenage boys, so they can improve greatly this time of year. The key is finding who is peaking on the First Saturday in May. The favorite hasn’t won the last six years since Justify in 2018, and the winner is often overlooked by the vast majority of the betting public as most look to the winners of the prep races. The other just-as-well-bred contenders have their odds drift up, creating value.
Remember that these colts are running the 1 1/4-mile distance for the first time, and they’re also contending with the biggest crowd they’ve ever heard. They’re trying not to get taken out in the cavalry charge to the first turn and have to overcome the traffic in a 20-horse field (now down to 19 with scratches). A lot can go wrong even if you’ve bet on the “best horse.”
And because of the wide-open nature of the race and the huge field, the exotics can pay huge. If you’re able to connect the dots, the Exacta (pick the first two finishers) usually pays in the $100s – led by a $3,009.60 Exacta in 2019 with 30-1 Country House, who actually ran second but was declared the winner after 9-2 Maximum Security was disqualified, topping 14-1 Code of Honor. Tacticus finished third at 5-1, but the Trifecta (pick the top three finishers) still paid $11,475.30. The Trifecta usually pays in the $1,000s (except in years when the chalk wins like with American Pharoah and Justify).
The Superfecta (pick the top four finishers) is even harder, but it can be life-changing money as the 2005 Giacomo super paid a record $864,253.50, with the 2009 Mine That Bird super paying $557,006.49, and the 2010 Super Saver super returning $101,284.60.
Another thing that makes Derby Day potentially profitable is there’s a lot of square money in the pools all day long, so we’ve often made a profit on the day even when we haven’t had the Derby winner.
So, let’s look at some undercard races before I get to my official plays on the Derby itself (after just listing my Top 3 Long Shots to Consider in the Betting Guide as we wanted to make sure we didn’t finalize our plays before seeing who would scratch and if it would impact the pace, etc.) as well as getting an updated weather forecast closer to the weekend – and how the horses handled the track after the heavy rainstorm on Friday. It seemed like they all ran to form, so I’m not making any major changes in my original handicap for these races.
Pat Day Mile (Grade 2, $600,000)
Churchill Downs, Race 6, 1:53 p.m. ET
Tuley’s Take: Madaket Road is the 2-1 morning-line favorite and a lot of people expect him to wire this field, but there’s plenty of other speed in this race that could compromise his chances and set it up for a stalker. My value play is #4 Smoken Wicked (12-1), who fell off the Derby Trail with a 13th-place finish in the Rebel at Oaklawn Park, but he could return to the form he was showing last winter when he won a race at Churchill and two others at Fair Grounds. Double-digit odds is definitely an overlay in my book..
Wagers: #4 Smoken Wicked to Win (Place only if in double digits).
Turf Sprint Stakes (Grade 2, $600,000)
Churchill Downs, Race 7, 2:38 p.m. ET
Tuley’s Take: I know most people see a sprint race of any kind, even on the turf like this, and look for speed, speed, speed, but it’s often the closers that are overlooked (and the race doesn’t always go to the swiftest – except at the finish line). I’m on #11 Eamonn (12-1), who looks to me like the most consistent late runner in the field. He closed big for a win two races back and closed well last time out while coming up short in third, but that’s why we’re getting a fair price.
Wagers: #11 Eamonn to Win and Place.
American Turf Stakes (Grade 1, $1 million)
Churchill Downs, Race 9, 4:06 p.m. ET
Tuley’s Take: This is kind of the inverse of the prior race as the American Turf Stakes is at a mile and a sixteenth on the grass and most bettors look for closers, but we’re taking a flier on #4 Mi Bago (10-1), who could be the lone speed and steal this race. He had three wire-to-wire victories in ungraded stakes before giving up the lead in the Grade 3 Transylvania Stakes at Keeneland, but again, that’s what is going to have a lot of handicappers drawing the proverbial line through him and throwing him out.
Wagers: #4 Mi Bago to Win (Place only if double digits).
Derby City Distaff Stakes (Grade 1, $1 million)
Churchill Downs, Race 10, 4:50 p.m. ET
Tuley’s Take: This is in the middle of the Pick 6 and kinda overlooked as it’s not the Derby and not the big turf race, but it’s a wide-open affair with no overwhelming favorite. Bob Baffert has made his return to Churchill after his long suspension from the drug positive/disqualification of Medina Spirit in the 2021 Kentucky Derby. He has Citizen Bull in the Derby, but he’s more likely to have a winner in one of the undercard races. I can see that coming with #12 Hope Road (15-1) in this stakes. The 4-year-old filly broke her maiden in wire-to-wire fashion from an outside post (which started a four-race win streak), so I know she can do it here as well.
Wagers: #12 Hope Road to Win and Place.
Kentucky Derby (Grade 1, $5 million)
Churchill Downs, Race 12, 6:57 p.m. ET
Tuley’s Take: In the VSiN Derby Betting Guide, I listed #3 Final Gambit (30-1), #14 Tiztastic (20-1) and #21 Baeza (12-1) as my long shots to consider, but gave the caveat that I would wait until closer to the race to finalize my top choice and recommended wagers.
After considering all the scratches (which I was glad I gave everyone reading the Betting Guide the heads-up about also-eligible Baeza getting into the race, though I wasn’t the only one), I’ve landed on #14 Tizatastic as my top value play for the 2025 Derby. He’s a deep closer (and ridden by jockey Joel Rosario, so I upgrade them in that regard) that started ninth of 10 in the Louisiana Derby but came out strong to win by two and a quarter lengths. He has been inconsistent, but of course, it only matters for these Derby hopefuls and their connections how they show up on the First Saturday in May. Not many of these colts have a win at Churchill Downs (Sovereignty being a notable exception in the Grade 3 Street Sense last October), but at least Tiztastic has a second and a third in graded stakes last October and November, so we’re hoping that keeps him from being one those who doesn’t like the track.
I’m putting #21 Baeza as my second choice as he is a really strong contender despite having to draw into the race (he was a victim of the Derby points system as his second-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby didn’t get maximum points since it was only a five-horse field as we nearly had one of the best 3-year-olds excluded from the field). This late-developing colt didn’t race until December and took three races to break his maiden. However, his lone stakes race was a runner-up finish to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby, only losing by three-quarters of a length, so he certainly has the right to take another big step forward. He comes in with much better chances than Rich Strike, who drew into the field in 2022 and won at 80-1. I also saw his morning-line of 12-1 as a clear sign from the morning-line maker that he was live if he got in. I’m even more encouraged that he was 19-1 most of the day Friday after the scratch of Grande.
I’m putting #3 Final Gambit (30-1) in my third spot (though if I was doing a 1-2-3-Longshot list like I did for years in the Daily Racing Form), I would put #8 Journalism third with Final Gambit in the “longshot” spot. Final Gambit will be able to drop back well off what should be a torrid pace and save ground all the way around the Churchill track to set up his late drive down the stretch. Look at his victory in his last race in the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park at 15-1 when he came from 11th place to win by three and a half lengths.
Wagers: #14 Tiztastic to Win and Place as my top value play; #21 Baeza or #3 Final Gambit if 20-1 or higher; 3-8-14-21 Exacta and Trifecta boxes; 3-8-14-17-21 Superfecta box adding in #17 Sandman.
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