Tuley’s Thoroughbred Takes: Kentucky Oaks Day at Churchill Downs:
We’re excited for Kentucky Derby weekend here in the Tuley’s Takes home office (and trust all VSiN subscribers got a nice head-start with the Derby Betting Guide. But first, we have Friday’s Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs and an undercard that I’ve heard several people say looks chalky, but I’ve had some of my best days over the years with my longshot plays when the public over bets these favorites. So let’s look at a few of these races leading up to the main event.
Oaks Day is considered Ladies Day with mostly races for fillies and mares, but we start out with a race featuring the boys.
Alysheba Stakes (Grade 2, $750,000)
Churchill Downs, Race 6, 1:42 p.m. ET
Tuley’s Take: This weekend last year, I had a nice future-book ticket on Kentucky Derby favorite Fierceness, but unfortunately, he faded to a 15th-place finish. He then won Saratoga’s two big stakes for 3-year-olds, the Grade 2 Jim Dandy and the Grade 1 Travers, before finishing second in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic. This is his first start as a 4-year-old and a worthy favorite; however, I have no problem fading him, especially with the only clunker of his career coming in his lone start at this track.
This is a small six-horse field, which scares a lot of people from betting long shots, but we often find good value for that reason (as just from a numbers standpoint, it’s easier to hit a 20-1 shot in a six-horse field than a 12-horse field). In addition to Fierceness, this field is loaded with colts that will want the lead or push the pace, so we see it setting up for a closer. I’m landing on #1 Katonah (20-1), who I believe is being overlooked off his 10-place finish in the Dubai World Cup. He fits otherwise and the pace should be to his benefit if he can close like his January win in the Grade 2 San Pasqual at Santa Anita.
Since I’m looking at late runners, I’ll also do an exacta box with #2 Locked, who closed to win the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap in March.
Wagers: #1 Katonah to Win and Place; Exacta Box 1 and 2.
LaTroeinne Stakes (Grade 1, $1 million)
Churchill Downs, Race 7, 2:23 p.m. ET
Tuley’s Take: Defending Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna is the odds-on 2-5 morning-line favorite in the next race, the LaTroeinne for fillies and mares, four years old and up. She has also romped in both her races this year, but again I’m not afraid to fade her, especially with a 70 percent chance of rain at Churchill on Friday as that often levels the playing field a little for our long shots (though Thorpedo Anna has handled wet and sloppy tracks in her career). Again, we’re looking at a closer and we’re landing on #3 Literate (30-1), who is taking a huge step up in class but again fits the race profile.
Wagers: #3 Literate to Win and Place.
Eight Belles Stakes (Grade 2, $600,000)
Churchill Downs, Race 9, 4:07 p.m. ET
Tuley’s Take: We don’t have a heavy favorite in this race for 3-year-old fillies, kind of for those who didn’t make the Oaks (though 10 won their last race). Unlike the prior two races, I’m looking for a speed horse to steal this seven-furlong race on the lead and hope I’ve found her in #8 Blue Fire (12-1). She’s been brought along slowly by supertrainer Steven Asmussen and has won four of five, but even though none of those were graded stakes, I don’t see this as that much of a step up in class, as many in this field are in the same scenario. All her wins are wire-to-wire, so I think her chances are much better than the double digits being offered here; my only concern is #4 Whatintheliteral (30-1) compromising our chances if she pushes Blue Fire on the lead. Still, it’s worth the shot.
Wagers: #8 Blue Fire to Win and Place.
Kentucky Oaks (Grade 1, $1.5 million)
Churchill Downs, Race 11, 5:51 p.m. ET
Good Cheer is an undefeated 6-for-6 lifetime and the deserving 6-5 morning-line favorite as she’s also 3-for-3 at Churchill, including a 17-length romp in her lone race over a sloppy track. However, she hasn’t been tested at the mile and an eighth distance, and maybe the outside draw could also be an obstacle, though not too much of a concern with her off-the-pace running style. Still, we think we can find some value in this 14-filly field.
#9 Tenma (12-1) is being overlooked even though she is trained by Bob Baffert, who is getting a lot of attention with his return to Churchill Downs after his suspension for the positive test/disqualification of Kentucky Derby victor Medina Spirit in 2021. Most of the focus has been on Baffert with Citizen Bull in Saturday’s Derby, but don’t sleep on him in Friday’s Oaks as Tenma looks like a solid overlay. She should have the same stalking trip at Good Cheer and should be well-positioned for her consistent late kick in the stretch at much better odds.
The scratch of #8 Five 5 does take away some of the early pace, so that’s another reason not to look at the deeper closers. An intriguing longer shot is #3 Fondly (20-1) with superjock Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons for trainer Graham Motion. She’s only raced twice at smaller tracks, but should also be stalking the early pace and certainly has the right to improve as young 3-year-olds often do.
Wagers: #9 Tenma to Win and Place. #3 Fondly to Win at 20-1. Exacta box with 3-9-11.
