Tuley’s Thoroughbred Takes – Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby and 1/ST Bet Contest:
It’s April 3 here in the Tuley’s Takes home office as I write this, so we’re one month from the First Saturday in May and the 151st Run for the Roses in the Kentucky Derby.
The Derby prep races have been heating up for 2025’s 3-year-olds to qualify for a spot in the 20-horse starting gate at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, and we have two prep races this Saturday that are also part of our VSiN Hoops & Horses Pick ‘Em Challenge in partnership with 1/ST BET.
The contest is FREE and you Go to the site to register and make your picks on the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct and the Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita (the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland was dropped from the contest when it was moved to Tuesday due to inclement weather in my old Kentucky home of Lexington this weekend) along with the side and Over/Under in the Final Four games. You receive points based on how your horses finish (5 points for Win, 3 points for Place and 1 point for Show) and 5 points for each correct selection on Florida -2.5/Auburn +2.5, Florida-Auburn Over/Under 160.5, Duke -5/Houston +5 and Duke-Houston Over/Under 136.
First place will win a $500 1/ST BET/Xpressbet wagering credit, with second place being worth $200 wagering credits, third place being worth $100 wagering credit, fourth through 10th place earning $25 wagering credit and 11th through 50th winning $10 wagering credit. That’s $1,375 in wagering credits up for grabs if my math is correct.
I’m not eligible for the prizes, but I’ll be playing along with the underdogs and Unders in the basketball games. As for the horse races, since this contest doesn’t reward you extra for long shots finishing in the money, I’m sure most people will be picking the chalk to try and pick up the most points. But, if you’re looking to separate yourself from the field or betting the races with your hard-earned cash and looking to blow up the toteboard, here are my “takes” on the two big races.
Wood Memorial
Aqueduct Race Course, 6:10 p.m. ET
Tuley’s Take: With Thursday’s scratches of Hill Road and Bear Claw Necklace, the Wood field is down to 10 runners. Hill Road was considered a top contender at 9-2 on the morning line but developed a fever. Bear Claw Necklace was a 50-1 long shot and won’t be missed as much by most of the betting public; however, he could have been a pace factor and increases the chances of the other speed horses, notably 5-2 morning-line favorite #1 Rodriguez from the Bob Baffert barn and breaking from the rail. Rodriguez could still get some pace pressure from #5 Sand Devil (8-1) and #7 Grande (5-1) to help compromise his chances, but the scratch of another “rabbit” has me looking for a live stalking colt as opposed to a deep closer.
If I was looking for a lower-priced contender in the contest, I would probably use second-choice Captain Hook (7-2), but I’m taking a flier on #8 Passion Rules (12-1) from the Brad Cox stable. Passion Rules is 3-for-3 with all the wins coming this year, as he didn’t race as a 2-year-old. This is obviously a huge step up in class as he’s only run in a maiden race and two optional claimers, but he certainly has the right to keep improving as we often see from 3-year-olds this time of year and should be able to sit off the pace and make his one upset bid in the stretch at a fair price.
Wagers: #8 Passion Rules to Win and Place, plus an Exacta Box with #2 Captain Cook.
Santa Anita Derby
Santa Anita Park Race 10, 7:46 p.m. ET
Tuley’s Take: The West Coast’s top Kentucky Derby prep race has only five entrants, so a lot of people will pass on it because they think there’s no betting value on such a short field. Meanwhile, those playing will probably load up more on the top contenders as they think their pick has an even better chance with fewer competitors to overcome – or even less traffic to contend with, which can lead to poor trips. But you won’t see me staying away because I definitely take the contrarian view. I’ve cashed many tickets over the years with long shots in these races, thanks to the majority of the public betting the chalk even heavier in these small fields.
Granted, Jeremy Plonk of 1/ST BET was on VSiN the other day talking about how the favorites in this race (Journalism the 6-5 morning-line favorite, Citizen Bull at 9-5 and Barnes at 3-1) would be No. 1 seeds in any region if this was March Madness and this race is the equivalent of the Final Four with the winner likely going off as the Kentucky Derby favorite. But, again, I look at it the other way. I’m betting the longest price on the board, #3 Westwood, who is 20-1 on the morning line. With all the hype about the top contenders, especially Journalism coming off two Grade 2 wins, including the San Felipe Stakes over this track, and Citizen Bull being the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and trained by Bob Baffert, Westwood could go off even higher. But it’s not just the price I like. Westwood is also the only late runner in the race. I’ve seen this happen many times over the years, where the front-runners burn each other out battling early, and the closer comes in to pick up the pieces as the chalk fades in the stretch.
Wagers: #3 Westwood to Win and Place. Not even going to look at the exotics.
