Mike Somich’s Turfway and Gulfstream Picks:
With the weather rolling through the southern states, we have two days of Derby preps instead of one! Turfway Park will kick off the festivities on Saturday, followed by the Rebel on Sunday from Oaklawn, which means one article for each day!
John Battaglia Stakes, Turfway Park, Race #7
On Saturday, all eyes will be on favorite #9 First Resort at Turfway. He has run well on both turf and dirt early in his racing career and chose an interesting path to try to punch his ticket to the Derby. His turf form should translate well to the Turfway Park synthetic track, and he proved the distance was not a problem at Churchill last November. The big question here will be what price you are willing to swallow. His 2-1 morning line will be higher than his off odds, which I project will be closer to even money. His best races have come on or near the lead, which could be an issue today with a handful of other speed signed on.
#7 Baby Max will try to replicate his winning ways over this course after a nice win in the local prep for this spot. He improved each time on the synthetic and has the right style to win the race with a nice late kick. He will have to take another step forward, but that is plausible with the added distance and the 6-1 price is much more attractive.
#5 California Burrito won on the lead last time out, but that was more of an inherited lead than natural speed. In his prior win, he came from further back to beat 10 other runners while having to pass six of them. He’s proven at both the distance and over the surface, so it will all come down to his ability to take another step forward to beat this bunch.
#12 Maximum Promise may benefit the most from this race being run on synthetic instead of dirt. He debuted on turf with an awful post, broke slowly, was hung wide and still put in a run. He has run on dirt twice since. Expect the move to the new surface today to improve his chances.
The Bet – $50 Win #7
Gulfstream Park Sprint, Gulfstream Park, Race #7
The feature on the Gulfstream Park card is a six-furlong sprint for older horses featuring one of the stalwarts in this division, #4 Nakatomi. He has a couple of eye-popping races but struggles with consistency. His last win as the favorite came all the way back in June of 2022. Since then, he has burnt money four times in similar fields. Nakatomi’s best will be tough here, but I’m not willing to assume we will be getting that today, especially at a 6-5 morning line that will likely be bet down.
Instead, let’s look to the #6 Concrete Glory, who is jumping up into stakes company off back-to-back romps over this Gulfstream Park course. He absolutely loves it here, 10 for 16 lifetime, and will head out for leading trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. He does not need the lead to win so the speed to his inside, who may scratch, is not a huge concern, especially since he backs up after a half mile.
#7 Comedy Town enters second off the layoff and loves Gulfstream. He has racked up three wins in four races and will appreciate the pace to chase while still close. His best race was over this track at this distance, and the level is comfortable for him. He has won similar stakes in the past.
The price is on the rail, #1 Swirvin. He is more lightly raced than his counterparts and has lost to both Nakatomi and Comedy Town in the past, but he has always had the upside to compete with this bunch. After stumbling at the start of his 2025 debut, he ran a good race and could step forward here second off the layoff.
The Bet – $50 Win #6
Other bets:
Gulfstream Park Race #6 – $50 Win #9
Gulfstream Park Race #11 – $50 Win #1
