Mike Somich’s Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby Picks:
We’ve officially turned for home with the first weekend in May in our sights. Last weekend, we saw Tappan Street roll home impressively in the Florida Derby, holding off Sovereignty, who had a less-than-ideal trip. I like both horses’ chances in the Kentucky Derby. Sandman got a perfect setup to win the Arkansas Derby while winning the race but showed all the issues he will have to overcome at Churchill in the process. I will not be playing him.
Before we look at this weekend’s prep races, make sure to sign up for the FREE contest sponsored by VSiN and 1st. You can enter the contest here. Simply pick the side and total from both Final Four games and the winner for the Wood and Santa Anita Derby, and if you amass the most points, 1st Bet will give you a $500 voucher!
Wood Memorial, Aqueduct, Race #12
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Bob Baffert is shipping in the favorite, #1 Rodriguez, to try to get him into the Derby. It will be an interesting benchmark for the rest of the California crop who he is clearly behind. Rodriguez is likely to get the lead from the rail, something he has not done since going gate to wire, which certainly makes him a threat in this spot, but he is also going to be bet down from his 5/2 morning line, which makes me look elsewhere.
Todd Pletcher is also shipping in an upstart who was 2 for 2 at Gulfstream, including winning at today’s mile and an eighth distance. #7 Grande has got early speed, but did not need the lead in either win. This is a class test, so we need all of the 5-1 price, but if it’s there, I’m interested.
#2 Captain Cook won the Withers here back in February at this distance and has been training up to this race. It is a positive when a trainer has a target and is then able to run a horse in that spot. He’s got a similar style to Grande, so the trip should be good here. Dutrow knows how to get a horse ready for this spot. Expect Captain Cook to run well.
Let’s take a look at some prices here, starting with #8 Passion Rules. He is 12-1 on the morning line for trainer Brad Cox, who has already won a major prep with a price on this Derby trail. He needs to improve to compete, but he should get the pace to chase and the fact that Cox believes he is ready for this spot makes him live.
#11 Statesman is a similar case who has won back-to-back races but steps up in class. He is shipping in from Tampa, which I do not love, but Shug McGaughey has a tendency for horses like this to outrun their odds, so he is worth a double take at 15-1.
Top 4: 7-2-8-1
The Bet: $50 to Win #7
Santa Anita Derby, Santa Anita, Race #10
While there are just five horses who will head to the gate, the talent is off the charts. San Felipe winner #1 Journalism headlines a field that has four possible horses who can make some noise in the Kentucky Derby. He has two major obstacles to overcome. First, his San Felipe was almost too good. To run a 108 beyer off the bench for a 3-year-old is just a massive effort. There is a possibility that he regresses here, but a slight regression is probably still good enough to win. The other issue is the Baffert tandem who may try to pull some shenanigans.
Both logical speed horses, #2 Citizen Bull and #4 Barnes, are stablemates and will not push each other early. While Barnes is naturally faster, I expect Citizen Bull to make the lead and Barnes to attempt to box in Journalism. If Journalism’s trip is clean, he is tough in this spot, but the trip will be the question. Of the two Baffert runners, I am higher on Barnes. He was low-key awesome in the San Felipe. The beyer was massive, he beat Rodriguez by 10 lengths, and he built up to that number. Citizen Bull has been great in his last three wins, all coming gate to wire, but today will be his biggest test. He will need to improve to beat his main rivals’ San Felipe efforts. If he is loose, it is possible he can do it.
I’ve got to at least mention #5 Baeza who was awesome breaking his maiden last time out, but the waters clearly get deeper here. I would be very interested if he was 15-1 here, but 6-1 feels a little short.
Top 4: 1-4-2-5
The Bet: $50 Exacta 1-4Spot Bets
Santa Anita Race #9: $50 Win #7
Aqueduct Race #9: $50 Exacta 2-3
