Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby and Keeneland Best Bets
We’ve made the turn for home in the Kentucky Derby qualifying process, with the final three major preps running this weekend at Aqueduct, Keeneland, and Santa Anita. Before we head to my Keeneland best bets, let’s quickly cover the Aqueduct and Santa Anita races since those lack a chance for a big score.
At Aqueduct, The Wood Memorial will be the 10th race on the card, and I like favorite #4 Deterministic’s chances to score at what will be a short price. The main contender is #9 Tuscan Sky with both the #1 Resilience and #2 El Grande O are going to be included in my trifectas.
In the Santa Anita Derby, it looks like Bob Baffert holds the goods with #4 Imagination, the morning line favorite and my pick on top. To his inside, #3 Stronghold, and to his outside, #5 Wynstock, will be the main competitors in a race that probably won’t produce much of a price.
Blue Grass Stakes, Keeneland, Race #10
The main event of the day is undoubtedly at Keeneland, with two of the top choices for the Derby, #4 Dornoch and #10 Sierra Leone, renewing their rivalry.
Dornoch is coming off a win in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park in what I would describe as less than impressive. He got everything his own way on the front in a short field and did not look impressive being unable to pull away from Le Dom Bro, who got clobbered in the Florida Derby last weekend.
Sierra Leone enters off an eye-catching performance in the Risen Star, where he was able to run down Track Phantom. The issue is Track Phantom came back to get clobbered in the Louisiana Derby. I like Sierra Leone more than Dornoch here, but this race screams price to me, so let’s go hunting!
The #2 Be You is an interesting case. He was a highly touted Pletcher trainee who ran well enough on debut to jump into Grade 1 races in his next two starts. Neither was wonderful, but both were laden with excuses. After a break, he finally got his first win, and returned to the Saratoga form, last time out. All the talent is there, and it sure looked like the lightbulb finally snapped on last race. If he can run to his top ability, then 8-1 is a steal.
The other price that has a chance to jump up is the #1 Top Conor, who enters this as his 2nd career start. The waters get much deeper today, but the debut was eye-popping as he stalked a fast pace and kept right on going from the inside draw.
Picks: 2-10-1-4
Keeneland Best Bets:
$50 Win #2
$5 Trifecta – 2 / 1,4,10 / 1,4,10
Shakertown Stakes, Keeneland, Race #9
Directly before the Blue Grass is a fun and tricky turf sprint. There is tons of value to be had in this spot with a full field and a lukewarm 7/2 morning line favorite. Let’s start with the #6 Arzak, who makes his seasonal debut in this spot. He is 1-1 over the track with a win here in the Grade 2 Woodford last year. His style plays well to this course. He has tactical speed to stay close and a kick to get him home. He should get the ideal trip here and, at 4-1, the price is right.
The #4 Beer Can Man will look to flip the script on Arzak, he ran third in the Woodford, but has the goods to do it. He took over a year off heading into 2023 and got better as the year went along. I expect him to step forward again this season and Prat sees fit to ride for D’Amato who does not ship many across the Mississippi from California.
#3 Mischief Magic has been installed as your morning line favorite at 7/2, and for good reason. The last time we saw him in the States was in 2022 when he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint over the Keeneland turf. Since then, he’s been globetrotting, taking on the best the world has to offer and more than holding his own. He will be flying late and need a clean trip from the back if he wants to move to 2-2 in the US.
#10 Our Shot was your second-place finisher in the aforementioned Woodford last year, with a nice closing kick off a good trip. He will need much of the same today, but at 10-1, he is intriguing, to say the least, second off the layoff.
Picks: 6-4-3-10
Keeneland Best Bets:
$50 Win #6
$5 Tri – 6 / 3,4,10 / 3,4,10
Spot plays:
Keeneland Race #7 – $50 Win #6
Aqueduct Race #9 – $50 Win #7
Santa Anita Race #7 – $50 Win #7
