Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for August 8

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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Tuesday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

 

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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Tuesday’s MLB action…

 

6:40 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals at Tampa Bay Rays (-175, 8.5) 

The Cardinals (49-64) just dropped two of three at home against the Rockies, losing 1-0 on Sunday as -250 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Rays (68-46) just took two of three at the Tigers, winning Sunday’s series finale 10-6 as -200 road favorites. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, St. Louis hands the ball to righty Miles Mikolas (6-7, 4.29 ERA) and Tampa Bay counters with fellow righty Zach Eflin (12-6, 3.46 ERA). This line opened with the Rays listed as a -170 home favorite and the Cardinals a +155 road dog. Pros have laid the chalk with Tampa Bay, pushing the Rays up from -170 to -175. Tampa Bay is receiving 83% of bets and 84% of money, signaling a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 95-58 (61%) with a 3% ROI. AL East favorites playing teams outside the division are 174-91 (66%) with a 7% ROI. Tampa Bay also has value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team. The Rays are 37-19 at home. The Cardinals are 24-31 on the road. St. Louis is just 2-10 in Mikolas’ last 12 starts. Eflin has a 2.60 ERA in 12 starts at home. Sharps are also leaning under, as the total is 8.5 with the under juiced to -115, signaling a possible drop down to 8. 

 

7:05 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (-160, 9.5) at Pittsburgh Pirates 

The Pirates (51-61) took Monday night’s series opener 7-6, coming from behind the cash as +250 home dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Braves (70-40) go with righty Yonny Chirinos (5-4, 4.42 ERA) and the Pirates send out fellow righty Mitch Keller (9-8, 4.35 ERA). This line opened with Atlanta listed as low as a -145 road favorite and Pittsburgh a +130 home dog. The Braves have lost three straight and pros are banking on Atlanta to get back on track, steaming Atlanta up from -145 to -160. The Braves are receiving 80% of bets and 85% of money, indicating both public and sharp action in their favor. Atlanta is 48-22 (69%) against teams who missed the playoffs the previous season, generating a 6% ROI. The Braves have a big edge at the plate (hitting .270 vs .235) and on the mound (team ERA 3.89 vs 4.51). Atlanta is 33-20 on the road. Pittsburgh is 27-28 at home. The Pirates are 1-6 in Keller’s last seven starts. Sharps have also leaned over, with the over 9.5 juiced to -115 hinting at a rise up to 10. The forecast calls for high 70s with 7-10 MPH winds blowing out to dead center. The over is receiving 66% of bets and 96% of money, a notable sharp over bet discrepancy.