Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Friday April 14

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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Friday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

You can also track the VSiN Betting Splits for every game. 

In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Friday’s MLB slate…

 

7:07 pm. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (-135, 9) at Toronto Blue Jays

The Rays (13-0) are the only undefeated team in MLB and just swept the Red Sox in a four-game series at home, winning 9-3 on Thursday as -250 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Jays (8-5) just took two of three at home against the Tigers but fell to Detroit 3-1 yesterday as -250 home favorites. In tonight’s series opener, Tampa Bay turns to righty Drew Rasmussen (2-0, 0.00 ERA) and Toronto counters with fellow righty Jose Berrios (0-2, 11.17 ERA). This line opened at a virtual pick’em with both sides listed at roughly -110. Pros have pounced on Tampa Bay at the cheap price, steaming the red-hot Rays up from -110 to -135. Tampa Bay is receiving 72% of bets but 81% of money, signaling both public and sharp support. Favorites taking in steam of 10-cents or more in their favor are 47-33 (59%) this season. Both teams are hitting roughly .287. The difference comes on the mound, with Tampa Bay sporting a 2.17 team ERA compared to 4.84 for Toronto. Pros have also leaned over, as the total is 9 with the over juiced to -120, signaling a possible rise up to 9.5. The over is receiving 66% of bets but 91% of money, a sharp over discrepancy. The Rays are 9-3-1 to the over this season. 

 

9:40 p.m. ET: New York Mets (-210, 8) at Oakland Athletics

The Mets (7-6) just took two of three at home against the Padres and are coming off a 5-2 win on Wednesday, cashing as -115 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Athletics (3-10) just dropped three of four on the road at the Orioles, losing the finale 8-7 on Thursday as +195 road dogs. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, New York taps righty Kodai Senga (2-0, 1.59 ERA) and Oakland rebuttals with fellow righty James Kaprielian (0-1, 11.17 ERA). This line opened with the Mets listed as a -195 road favorite and the Athletics a +180 home dog. Pros aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have steamed the Mets up from -195 to -210. New York is receiving 85% of bet buts 97% of money, indicating a combination of heavy Pro and Joe support. The Mets have a "rest vs tired" advantage, having been off yesterday while the A’s played in Baltimore. Favorites coming off a day off playing teams on the second leg of a back-to-back are 283-179 (61%) since 2018. Non-division road favorites are 26-11 (70%) this season. Non-division road favorites -200 or more are 56-21 (73%) since 2022. New York also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the "better" team.