Seeley: EPL Best Bets for the weekend’s upcoming matches

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Hi everyone! Nigel Seeley here looking again at the best bets on Gameweek 31 in the English Premier League.

 

Last week wasn’t one of my best this season with just one winning play out of three, but overall it’s been a good campaign so far, and I am confident we will finish strong with just a few weeks remaining in the 2022/23 season.

 

Aston Villa vs. Newcastle

Saturday, 7:30 a.m. ET

The early kick-off is usually a bettors’ graveyard, but this week’s offering between Aston Villa and Newcastle looks like a nice way to start our betting journey for the weekend.

This match sees two of the in-form teams in the division going head-to-head with each other at Villa Park. Looking at the odds on the money line, this is a very difficult one to call. The bet I like here is for this match to produce goals. The first bet this weekend is over 2.5 at +100.

I am traditionally an UNDER bettor. During my time working behind the counter, the sharps, or “faces” as we call them here, would be playing the UNDER, while the public would play the OVER. But over the years, that theory has switched as Premier League clubs have invested in world-class offensive players. This is the time when goal rates go up, as April is the highest-scoring month of the season with sides encouraged to attack with their fates already determined. Let’s break down this match though.

Since former Arsenal manager Unai Emery took charge at Aston Villa, he has changed the style of play and the Villians have become much more offensive. In 20 matches with the Spaniard in charge, they have scored at least a goal in every match. With Newcastle arriving at Villa Park with at least two goals scored in four of their last five matches, you have to expect goals.

In Ollie Watkins and Callum Wilson, both clubs have a striker in fine form. And with the reverse fixture comfortably cashing the other 2.5 in a 4-0 Newcastle win, I am surprised that it’s +100 on over 2.5 to cash again. The only thing putting me off this play is the kick-off time.

Pick: OVER 2.5 goals Aston Villa vs. Newcastle at +100

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Everton vs. Fulham

Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET

My second pick this week takes me to the bottom of the table where Everton is desperate for points to avoid relegation. I believe they will get a much-needed win when they host Fulham on Saturday.

Everton is available at +100 for this match and I like that play. It’s not because I have seen anything special from the Toffees; it’s because I have seen a massive drop in effort and metrics from Fulham over the last month.

Every EPL season, there is one team that heads into the Easter period with absolutely nothing to play for. They can’t win the title, can’t break into Europe, and are safe from relegation. They are basically in mid-table obscurity just going through the motions. That team for 2022/23 is Fulham.

After gaining promotion last season, the Cottagers were a breath of fresh air in the EPL but their young squad imploded in the FA Cup quarter-final defeat at Manchester United with two players sent off as well as their manager. In a crazy two minutes, their season was over.

Since that loss, Fulham has played two teams in the relegation shake-up—Bournemouth and West Ham—and have lost them both. They’re now in the middle of a five-match losing run which I can’t see coming to an end this weekend.

The big blow for Fulham is their main man Aleksandra Mitrovic has been given an eight-match suspension after pushing a referee. He has missed the last two matches and will again be missing for the weekend. Without the Serbian, this Fulham side is not the same.

Also, they will be without manager Marco Silva who is also banned from the sideline. That takes out a lot of Fulham’s determination as the Portuguese manager was sacked by Saturday’s opponents Everton.

With regards to Everton, they have to make Goodison Park as hostile as possible if they are to stay in the top flight which they showed in a recent 1-0 win over title favorites Arsenal. They have followed up with wins by the same scoreline against Brentford and Leeds. Up against a Fulham side without their talisman Mitrovic and their passionate manager on the sidelines, and with nothing to play for, I like the home side at +100.

Pick: Everton to beat Fulham at +100

 

Chelsea vs. Brighton

Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET

Last week, we saw one of the biggest gambles of the EPL season when Brighton was bet from +185 down to +160 for their trip to Tottenham. I am expecting the money to come for Brighton again this weekend when they take on Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.

The gamble on Brighton went down 2-1 to Spurs last weekend, but how they lost I still can’t understand. The Seagulls dominated possession. had more shots, scored a perfectly good goal that VAR disallowed, and had two perfectly good penalty claims also overturned by VAR.

This weekend, they travel to a Chelsea side that is having a terrible season and are rated higher odds to get the win than they were at Tottenham last weekend, which doesn’t make much sense.

Brighton is currently +170 on the moneyline to get maximum points which I fully expect to collapse again come kick-off time, because all the big Asian syndicated bet Brighton heavily every weekend, and there is a lot to like about them in this fixture.

Chelsea is in shocking form. They were beaten 2-0 midweek in the Champions League at Real Madrid, and with the return leg in London on Tuesday, they will still feel that they can qualify. That match is of much greater importance than a meaningless game with Brighton in the EPL.

Chelsea is languishing in 11th in the league table. They haven’t won in their last five games, and with Brighton looking to gain a European spot and out for revenge after the decisions that went against them last week, there is only going to be one team focused on the job at hand.

The big problem for caretaker manager Frank Lampard is Chelsea’s failure to score goals. With all the talent he has at his disposal in southwest London, he doesn’t have a striker. The Blues have now failed to score in their last four matches, and with Brighton scoring in their last eight and hammering Chelsea 4-1 in the reverse fixture, the +170 on the visitors won’t last long as the big syndicates are circling.

Pick: Brighton to beat Chelsea at +170