Today we have a loaded MLB slate with 13 games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
Top MLB Resources:
4:35 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants (-118, 7.5)
The Padres (4-5) just dropped two of three against the Cardinals but managed to win the series finale 3-2 as -150 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Giants (2-5) just got swept by the Dodgers, losing the series finale 5-4 as +200 road dogs. In this late afternoon series opener, San Diego starts righty Dylan Cease (0-1, 3.86 ERA) while San Francisco sends out fellow righty Jordan Hicks (1-0, 0.00 ERA). This line opened with the Giants listed as a short -112 home favorite and the Padres a -106 road dog. We’ve seen the Giants creep up from -112 to -118, signaling sneaky sharp action on San Francisco. The Giants are receiving roughly 60% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating modest public support but also respected smart money. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 5-2 (71%) this season and 444-265 (63%) since 2020. These teams just played each other to start the season and split a four-game set in San Diego. Hicks outpitched Cease in a 9-6 win, going five innings and giving up no runs. The Giants have value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team. Pros have leaned under as well, dropping the total from 8 to 7.5. The under is receiving 23% of bets but 58% of money, a sharp contrarian bet split. This is also the Giants’ home opener.
6:40 p.m. ET: New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds (-120, 9)
The Mets (1-5) just split a doubleheader against the Tigers yesterday, winning the nightcap 2-1 as -120 home favorites. On the flip side, the Reds (4-2) just took two of three against the Phillies, winning the series finale 4-1 as +150 road dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Mets start lefty Jose Quintana (0-1, 3.86 ERA) and the Reds go with righty Hunter Greene (0-0, 3.86 ERA). This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a -115 home favorite and New York a -105 road dog. Sharps have sided with the short home favorite, steaming the Reds up from -115 to -120. Cincinnati is receiving roughly 80% of moneyline bets and dollars, signaling both public and sharp support. The Reds have the far better offense (hitting .265 vs .173) and have scored 34 runs compared to just 13 runs for the Mets. Cincinnati enjoys a notable “rest vs tired” advantage, as the Reds were off yesterday while the Mets played a doubleheader and then had to travel. The Reds also have value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team. The Reds are +7 in run differential while the Mets are -13.
7:40 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals (-185, 8)
The Royals (3-4) crushed the White Sox (1-5) in last night’s series opener 10-1, easily cashing as -185 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch Chicago hands the ball to righty Erick Fedde (0-0, 3.86 ERA) and Kansas City counters with fellow righty Brady Singer (1-0, 0.00 ERA). This line opened with the Royals listed as a -175 home favorite and the White Sox a +150 road dog. Sharps are riding the hot hand and have gotten down hard on Kansas City, steaming the Royals up from -175 to -185. Kansas City is receiving roughly 90% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating heavy one-sided support from both respected wiseguys and the betting public. The Royals have a big edge on offense, hitting .247 vs .193 and scoring 34 runs compared to just 12 for the White Sox. Kansas City also has the better team ERA (3.05 vs 4.42). Singer is coming off a great opening day start in which he went 7 innings, gave up no runs and stuck out ten in an 11-0 win over the Twins. The Royals are +13 in run differential while the White Sox are -20. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 8.5 to 8. The under is receiving 51% of bets but 78% of money, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. The forecast calls for low 60s with 10 MPH winds blowing in from left center at Kauffman Stadium.
