Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Friday July 14

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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Friday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

 

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You can also track the latest odds and percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Friday’s MLB slate…

 

7:05 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins at Baltimore Orioles (-125, 8.5)

The Marlins (53-39) finished the first half by taking two of three from the Phillies, winning the series finale 7-3 as -120 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Orioles (54-35) are riding a five-game winning streak and just swept the Twins, winning the series finale 15-2 as +130 road dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Marlins hand the ball to righty Sandy Alcantara (3-7, 4.72 ERA) and the Orioles counter with fellow righty Dean Kremer (9-4, 4.78 ERA). This line opened with Baltimore listed as a -115 home favorite and Miami a +105 road dog. Pros have pounced on the Orioles laying a short number at home, steaming Baltimore up from -115 to -125. The Orioles are receiving 58% of bets and 65% of money, indicating modest public support but also respected sharp action. Non-division home favorites receiving 5-cents of steam or more are 105-58 (64%) this season. AL East favorites playing non-AL East teams are 145-70 (67%). The Orioles also have value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team. Baltimore is 29-12 as a favorite, 36-25 against righties and 26-18 at home. The Orioles are 9-3 in Kremer’s last 12 starts. Alcantara has an ERA of 5.00 in nine road starts this season (compared to 4.48 at home). 

 

7:10 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (-125, 8.5) at New York Mets

The Dodgers (51-38) won four-straight to end the unofficial first half of the season, sweeping the Angels in a two-game set and winning the finale 10-5 as -150 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Mets (42-48) just lost two of three at the Padres, dropping the finale 6-2 as +110 road dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Dodgers turn to lefty Julio Urias (6-5, 4.76 ERA) and the Mets send out righty Justin Verlander (3-4, 3.60 ERA). This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -115 road favorite and New York a +105 home dog. Pros have laid the short chalk with the Dodgers, steaming Los Angeles up from -115 to -125. "Sweet Spot" short road favorites -120 to -150 are 136-77 (64%) this season with an 11% ROI. Non-division road favorites off a win are 110-66 (63%) with a 6% ROI. The Dodgers are 54-31 as a favorite. The Mets are just 9-21 as a dog. Pros are also leaning under, as the total is 8.5 with the under juiced to -115, signaling a possible fall down to 8. If both teams made the playoffs the previous year, which is the case here, the under is 107-89 (55%). The under is 24-13 (65%) at Citi Field, the second best under stadium behind Progressive Field.