Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Friday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Friday’s MLB slate…
7:05 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins at Baltimore Orioles (-125, 8.5)
The Marlins (53-39) finished the first half by taking two of three from the Phillies, winning the series finale 7-3 as -120 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Orioles (54-35) are riding a five-game winning streak and just swept the Twins, winning the series finale 15-2 as +130 road dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Marlins hand the ball to righty Sandy Alcantara (3-7, 4.72 ERA) and the Orioles counter with fellow righty Dean Kremer (9-4, 4.78 ERA). This line opened with Baltimore listed as a -115 home favorite and Miami a +105 road dog. Pros have pounced on the Orioles laying a short number at home, steaming Baltimore up from -115 to -125. The Orioles are receiving 58% of bets and 65% of money, indicating modest public support but also respected sharp action. Non-division home favorites receiving 5-cents of steam or more are 105-58 (64%) this season. AL East favorites playing non-AL East teams are 145-70 (67%). The Orioles also have value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team. Baltimore is 29-12 as a favorite, 36-25 against righties and 26-18 at home. The Orioles are 9-3 in Kremer’s last 12 starts. Alcantara has an ERA of 5.00 in nine road starts this season (compared to 4.48 at home).
7:10 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (-125, 8.5) at New York Mets
The Dodgers (51-38) won four-straight to end the unofficial first half of the season, sweeping the Angels in a two-game set and winning the finale 10-5 as -150 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Mets (42-48) just lost two of three at the Padres, dropping the finale 6-2 as +110 road dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Dodgers turn to lefty Julio Urias (6-5, 4.76 ERA) and the Mets send out righty Justin Verlander (3-4, 3.60 ERA). This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -115 road favorite and New York a +105 home dog. Pros have laid the short chalk with the Dodgers, steaming Los Angeles up from -115 to -125. "Sweet Spot" short road favorites -120 to -150 are 136-77 (64%) this season with an 11% ROI. Non-division road favorites off a win are 110-66 (63%) with a 6% ROI. The Dodgers are 54-31 as a favorite. The Mets are just 9-21 as a dog. Pros are also leaning under, as the total is 8.5 with the under juiced to -115, signaling a possible fall down to 8. If both teams made the playoffs the previous year, which is the case here, the under is 107-89 (55%). The under is 24-13 (65%) at Citi Field, the second best under stadium behind Progressive Field.
