Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Friday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Friday’s MLB action…
8:10 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers (-125, 8)
The Reds (49-39) just swept the Nationals, winning Thursday’s series finale 5-4 as +115 road dogs. On the flip side, the Brewers (47-41) just split a four-game series against the Cubs, winning 6-5 yesterday as -110 home favorites. In tonight’s series opener, Cincinnati goes with lefty Andrew Abbott (4-0, 1.21 ERA) and Milwaukee starts righty Corbin Burnes (6-5, 4.00 ERA). This line opened with the Brewers listed as a -130 home favorite and the Reds a +115 road dog. Sharps have jumped on the Reds as a plus-money dog, dropping Cincinnati from +115 to +110. The Reds are receiving 60% of bets but 75% of money, signaling modest public support but also heavy sharp action. Road dogs with a line move in their favor are 116-112 (51%) this season with a 16% ROI. Cincinnati also has value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting plus money. The Reds have the better bats, hitting .258 vs .230 for the Brewers. Cincinnati is 6-0 in Abbott’s six starts this season. Milwaukee is just 12-16 against lefties (compared to 35-25 against righties). Pros are also leaning under, as the total is 8 with the under juiced to -120, signaling a possible dip down to 7.5. The under is receiving 32% of bets but 48% of money, a sharp contrarian bet discrepancy.
10:10 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers (-175, 9)
The Angels (45-44) just got swept at the Padres, losing Wednesday’s series finale 5-3 as +160 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Dodgers (49-38) just took three of four against the Pirates, winning 5-2 yesterday as -200 home favorites. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Angels hand the ball to righty Griffin Canning (6-3, 4.29 ERA) and the Dodgers counter with fellow righty Tony Gonsolin (4-3, 3.69 ERA). This line opened with the Dodgers listed as a -170 home favorite and the Angels a +155 road dog. Pros have laid the chalk with the home team, steaming the Dodgers up from -170 to -175. The Dodgers are receiving roughly 85% of bets and dollars, signaling a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. Interleague favorites off a win are 128-72 (64%) this season with a 5% ROI. The Dodgers are 43-31 as a favorite, 39-24 against righties and 27-16 at home. Pros are also leaning over, as the total is 9 with some books juicing the over to -115. The forecast calls for high 60s with 5 MPH winds blowing out to center. The Dodgers are 49-33 (60%) to the over, the best over team in MLB. The Dodgers are 7-2 to the over in their last nine games.
