Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Monday July 24

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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Monday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

 

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You can also track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Monday’s MLB slate…

 

1:10 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants at Detroit Tigers (-140, 8.5)

The Giants (54-46) have lost five straight and just got swept at the Nationals, losing Sunday’s series finale 6-1 as -115 road favorites. Meanwhile, the Tigers (45-54) just dropped two of three against the Padres but avoided a sweep with a 3-1 win on Sunday as +185 home dogs. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Giants start righty Ross Stripling (0-3, 5.92 ERA) and the Tigers go with lefty Tarik Skubal (0-1, 5.25 ERA). This line opened with Detroit listed as a -130 home favorite and San Francisco a +110 road dog. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Why is Detroit favored if they have a far worse record? The public thinks the wrong team is favored and they’re loading up on San Francisco as a trendy dog. However, despite 57% of bets taking the Giants, we’ve actually seen the line move further to the Tigers (-130 to -140). This signals smart money laying the chalk with Detroit, who is receiving only 43% of bets but 64% of money, a notable sharp contrarian bet discrepancy. Interleague favorites off a win are 145-87 (63%) with a 3% ROI this season. Pros are also leaning under, as the total is 8.5 with the under juiced to -115, signaling a possible dip down to 8. This is a make-up game from April 16. The Tigers are 2-0 against the Giants this season. 

 

7:10 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians (-195, 8.5)

The Royals (28-73) just got swept at the Yankees, losing Sunday’s series finale 8-5 as +165 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Guardians (49-50) just took two of three against the Phillies but lost yesterday’s series finale 8-5 in ten innings, failing to cash as +115 home dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Royals hand the ball to lefty Ryan Yarbrough (2-5, 5.21 ERA) and the Guardians counter with fellow lefty Logan Allen (4-2, 3.21 ERA). This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -185 home favorite and Kansas City a +170 road dog. Pros are laying the chalk with the Guardians, steaming Cleveland up from -185 to -195. The Guardians are receiving 85% of bets and 87% of money, signaling a heavy combination of both public and sharp support. The Guardians have the better bats (hitting .253 vs .233) and better pitching (team ERA 3.88 vs 5.25). Cleveland also has the far superior bullpen rating (+10 vs -24). The Royals are 13-37 on the road, the second worst road record in MLB behind the Athletics. The Guardians are 26-23 at home. Cleveland is 7-0 in Allen’s last seven starts. Kansas City is just 9-25 (27%) against divisional opponents. The Guardians are 5-2 against the Royals this season.