Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Saturday April 22

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Today the weekend kicks off with a loaded slated of 15 MLB games. Be sure to track our VSiN Betting Splits for the latest odds and percentages for every game. In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Saturday’s MLB slate.

 

1:05 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees (-160, 7.5) 

The Blue Jays (12-8) took Friday night’s series opener 6-1, cashing as +115 road dogs. In this afternoon’s rematch, Toronto hands the ball to righty Alek Manoah (1-1, 6.98 ERA) and the Yankees (12-8) counter with fellow righty Gerrit Cole (4-0, 0.95 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a -145 home favorite and Toronto a +130 road dog. Pros have laid the chalk with the Yankees at home with their ace on the mound, steaming New York up from -145 to -160. Favorites off a loss who made the playoffs the previous season (bounce back with a good team) are 47-31 (60%) this season and 348-202 (63%) since 2022. The Yankees are receiving 85% of bets and 94% of money, signaling a combination of heavy sharp and public support. New York also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the "better" team. New York will lean on their pitching (3.02 ERA vs 4.90 ERA for Toronto). 

 

6:35 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates (-145, 9) 

The Pirates (14-7) have taken the first two games of this four-game series, winning the opener 4-3 as -165 home favorites and then winning again 4-2 last night as -145 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Reds (7-13) start righty Luis Cessa (0-2, 13.50 ERA) and Pittsburgh rebuttals with lefty Rich Hill (1-2, 5.57 ERA). This line opened with the Pirates listed as a -135 home favorite and the Reds a +115 road dog. Pros are riding the hot hand, steaming the Pirates up from -135 to -145. Pittsburgh is receiving roughly 70% of bets and dollars, indicating a combination of Pro and Joe support. Favorites who missed the playoffs the previous season are 75-41 (65%) this year. Pittsburgh has the better bats (.253 vs .240) and superior pitching (4.03 ERA vs 5.36 ERA). Cincinnati is 4-12 as a dog and 1-7 on the road. The Pirates are 4-0 as a favorite and 5-3 at home. Pittsburgh also has the fresher bullpen, throwing 8.1 innings in the last three games compared to 10 innings for Cincinnati.