Seeley: EPL Best Bets for this weekend’s matches

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Hi everyone, it’s Nigel Seeley here with my best bets on another Premier League weekend.

Last week was another “Meatloaf” for me, and although Two Out of Three Ain’t Bad, we want the clean sweep this weekend.

 

Fulham vs. Leeds

Saturday, 7:30 a.m. ET

The early kickoff comes from the banks of the river Thames where Fulham hosts Leeds at Craven Cottage.

This is a massive match for the visitors as they travel to the capital in 16th place in the table and just two points above the relegation zone. I was of the belief that their opponents Fulham had given up for the season, but last weekend’s 3-1 win at Everton shows that they mean business. With their manager Marco Silva returning to the dugout after suspension, I expect a decent performance from the home side who will be fully motivated to finish the season above their struggling neighbors Chelsea.

The Cottagers are still without the suspended Aleksandar Mitrovic, but that hasn’t stopped them from scoring goals, and with the shackles off and a frail Leeds defense arriving tomorrow, this looks like a game that will feature goals.

Five of Fulham’s last six matches have cashed on the over 2.5 goals, and when the two teams met earlier in the season, Fulham won at Elland Road 3-2 in an end-to-end thriller.

Leeds just can’t defend. In their last six EPL matches, they have conceded 20 goals or 3.33 per match, and even though they are conceding at an alarming rate, they have scored in every one of those matches. The games have featured an average of 5.16 per game.

With Leeds fighting for their Premier League status and Fulham playing some expansive football with nothing at all to play for, this match screams goals!!

Over 2.5 goals is available at -120 which looks like a nice play, but the better pick and my official play, the one that has cashed in the last six Leeds matches, is for both teams to score “yes,” which is available at -136.

Pick: Both Teams to Score “yes” at -136

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Brentford vs. Aston Villa

Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET

Another match where I expect to see goals is not far from Fulham in west London. It is there that Brentford will host an in-form Aston Villa.

If I could choose one match to watch this weekend on the EPL card as a neutral, this would be my choice. Both managers set their sides out to entertain, and both teams play attractive free-flowing football. I am expecting an end-of-season classic.

Thomas Frank has done a brilliant job at Brentford, and his team always comes out fast and furious with their high-press style. Aston Villa manager Unai Emery has turned Villa’s season completely around. When he took over, they were struggling at the foot of the table, but after an eight-game unbeaten run, they are up to sixth in the table and dreaming of Europe.

The one thing that is very impressive on Emery’s CV is that in his 21 matches in charge at Villa, his side has scored in every single match, and I would expect them to do the same again tomorrow.

In Ollie Watkins (barring Haaland), they have the hottest striker in the division who has scored 11 goals in his last 12 starts. At +185, he will be a very popular selection to score at any time on Saturday. Brentford also has an in-form striker in their ranks with Ivan Toney as well. This looks like a shootout to determine who should be the understudy for Harry Kane for the England national team.

Last weekend, Aston Villa produced one of the best performances I have seen this season to beat Newcastle 3-0, but a trip to Brentford is always a tough assignment. For me, the way to profit is on goals again. Over 2.5 goals is +100, which wouldn’t be the worst bet in the world, but the official play again is for both teams to score “yes,” which is my pick at -133.

Pick: Both Team to Score “yes” at -133

 

Crystal Palace vs. Everton

Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET

My final pick this weekend is a tentative one but I believe Crystal Palace is a touch of value at +110 to beat Everton at Selhurst Park.

Palace was sliding down the table at an alarming rate at the start of the year, but the board sacked manager Patrick Vieira and replaced him with their former boss, 75-year-old Roy Hodgson.

Since the former England manager took charge of Palace for a second time, they have won their last three in emphatic style against Leicester, Leeds and Southampton, all teams involved in a relegation battle like tomorrow’s opponents. Everton.

Hodgson has changed the shape of the side and brought back a player who I believe is one of the most gifted in the EPL, Eberechi Eze, who has scored three goals in his last two starts and looks interesting at +1100 to score the first goal.

A win for Palace tomorrow should guarantee them Premier League football for next season, so that is a big incentive against an Everton side that only has one road win all season and just three road wins in the last two seasons. To get plus money looks very generous.

Everton started life under new manager Sean Dyche in great style, winning 1-0 at home to Arsenal. Since then, their form has reverted alarmingly with just one win in their last eight.

The Toffees’ last match was an embarrassing 3-1 home defeat against Fulham, and I believe that they will come unstuck again tomorrow.

Pick: Crystal Palace to beat Everton at +110