Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Saturday July 8

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Today the weekend kicks off with a loaded slate of 15 MLB games. You can track the latest odds and percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits.

 

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Today is also my Bachelor Party (that’s right, I’m getting married later this month, can you believe it?) My friends and I are going to the Red Sox game at Fenway Park and then spending the night gambling at Encore Boston Casino. Stop by and say hello! We’ll be the ones playing roulette and sweating UFC at the sportsbook!

In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Saturday’s MLB slate…

 

4:05 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers (-185, 10) at Washington Nationals 

The Rangers (52-37) took Friday night’s series opener 7-2, taking care of business as -175 road favorites. In today’s rematch, the Rangers hand the ball to lefty Andrew Heaney (5-5, 4.12 ERA) and the Nationals (34-54) counter with righty Jake Irvin (1-5, 4.70 ERA). This line opened with Texas listed as a -170 road favorite and Washington a +155 home dog. Pros are laying the chalk with Texas, steaming the Rangers up from -170 to -185. Texas is receiving roughly 90% of bets and dollars, signaling a heavy combination of both public and sharp support. Road Interleague favorites are 80-44 (65%) this season with a 10% ROI. Road Interleague favorites off a win are 50-20 (71%) with a 20% ROI. The Rangers have the edge at the plate, hitting .275 versus .259 for the Nats. Texas is 34-23 as a favorite and 25-19 on the road. Washington is 32-52 as a dog and 13-32 at home. The Nats have also struggled against southpaws, going just 10-23. Texas also has the fresher bullpen, tossing just 8.2 innings over the past three games compared to 15.2 innings for Washington. Heaney has a 5.29 ERA at home but a 2.55 ERA on the road. Irvin has a 5.15 ERA at home compared to 3.71 on the road. 

 

4:10 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians (-180, 8.5) 

The Guardians (44-44) have taken the first two games of this AL Central series, winning the opener 6-1 as -230 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 3-0 as -185 home favorites. In today’s rematch, the Royals (25-64) start righty Brady Singer (5-7, 5.52 ERA) and the Guardians go with fellow righty Gavin Williams (0-1, 3.79 ERA). This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -165 home favorite and Kansas City a +150 road dog. Pros are riding the hot hand, steaming the Guardians up from -165 to -180. Cleveland is receiving roughly 85% of bets and dollars, indicating both Pro and Joe support. Home favorites off a win receiving 5-cents of steam or more are 131-72 (65%) this season with a 4% ROI. Cleveland has the better bats (hitting .248 vs .230) and superior pitching (team ERA 3.78 vs 5.26). The Royals are 22-54 as a dog, 18-46 against righties and just 12-33 on the road. Singer has a 7.03 ERA on the road. The Guardians have a bullpen rating of +17 compared to -18 for the Royals. Pros are also leaning under, as the total is 8.5 with the under juiced to -120, signaling a possible fall down to 8. The forecast calls for mid 70s with 5-10 MPH winds blowing in from center. Cleveland is 51-35 (59%) to the under this season, the best under team in MLB. When two AL Central foes face off, the under is 39-25 (61%).