Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Saturday June 17

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Today the weekend begins with a loaded slate of 15 MLB games. You can track the latest odds and percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits

 

In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Saturday’s MLB action…

 

4:07 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (-175, 9) at Oakland Athletics

The Phillies (36-34) won Friday night’s Interleague series opener 6-1, cashing as -140 road favorites. In this late afternoon rematch, Philadelphia starts lefty Cristopher Sanchez (0-0, 6.23 ERA) and the Athletics (19-53) tap righty James Kaprielian (2-6, 6.89 ERA). This line opened with the Phillies listed as low as a -145 road favorite and Oakland a +130 home dog. Sharps have gotten down hard on Philadelphia, steaming the Phillies up from -145 to -175. Philadelphia is receiving 84% of bets and 91% of money, signaling a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. Interleague road favorites are 66-34 (66%) this season, producing a 13% ROI. Interleague road favorites off a win are 42-15 (74%), producing a 24% ROI. The Phillies have the better bats, hitting .260 compared to .223 for the Athletics, and the better pitching staff, sporting a team ERA of 4.39 compared to 6.19 for Oakland. Philadelphia is 24-17 as a favorite. Oakland is just 4-15 against lefties, 19-52 as a dog and 9-27 at home. The red-hot Phillies are 11-2 over their last 13 games. The total is 9 with the over juiced to -115, signaling some liability on a higher scoring game. The over is receiving 53% of bets but 85% of money, a notable sharp bet discrepancy. The forecast calls for low 70s with 10 MPH winds blowing out to right center. 

 

7:15 p.m. ET: New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox (-130, 9)

The Red Sox (35-35) cruised to a 15-5 win in last night’s series opener, taking care of business as -125 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Yankees (39-31) turn to righty Clarke Schmidt (2-6, 4.70 ERA) and the Red Sox counter with fellow righty Brayan Bello (3-4, 3.78 ERA). This line opened with Boston listed as a -120 home favorite and New York a +110 road dog. The public is grabbing the Yankees as a popular plus money dog. However, despite 55% of bets taking New York, we’ve actually seen this line move further to Boston -120 to -130. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Red Sox, with pros fading the trendy dog Yankees and instead laying the short chalk with contrarian favorite Boston. Home favorites off a blowout win of 10 runs or more are 11-5 (59%) this season, producing a 6% ROI. Home favorites off a win receiving 5-cents of steam or more are 113-55 (67%), producing a 9% ROI. The Red Sox hold a big edge offensively, hitting .262 compared to .233 for the Yankees. Bello went 7 innings and gave up just two runs in a 3-2 win over the Yankees a week ago. New York is 1-5 in Schmidt’s last six starts. Schmidt has a 5.48 ERA on the road. The total is 9 with the over juiced to -115, signaling some over liability. The over is receiving 59% of bets but 70% of money, a sharp bet split. The over is 23-13 (63%) at Fenway Park, third best over stadium in baseball.