Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Saturday May 20

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Today the weekend kicks off with 15 MLB games. You can track the latest odds and percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Saturday’s MLB slate...

 

2:10 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox (-185, 9)

The White Sox (17-29) took Friday night’s series opener 2-0, taking care of business as -135 home favorites. In this early afternoon rematch, the Royals (14-32) turn to righty Jordan Lyles (0-7, 7.14 ERA) while Chicago taps fellow righty Lucas Giolito (2-3, 3.86 ERA). This line opened with the White Sox listed as a -175 home favorite and the Royals a +160 road dog. Pros aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have steamed Chicago up from -175 to -185. The White Sox are getting roughly 75% of bets and dollars, signaling a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. Chicago has the edge at the plate, hitting .243 compared to .230 for Kansas City. The Royals are 13-29 as a dog, 12-25 against righties and 8-15 on the road. Chicago also has the much fresher bullpen, throwing 6.2 innings over the last three games compared to 12.1 innings for Kansas City. Giolito has a 3.32 ERA in three May starts. Lyles has a 9.37 ERA in three May starts. The total is 9 with the under juiced to -115, signaling some under liability and a possible dip down to 8.5. Both teams are 6-2 to the under in their last eight games. 

 

4:05 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates (-140, 8.5)

The Pirates (24-20) cruised 13-3 in last night’s series opener, cashing as +155 home dogs. In this late afternoon rematch, the Diamondbacks (25-20) start righty Brandon Pfaadt (0-1, 8.59 ERA) and Pittsburgh counters with fellow righty Mitch Keller (5-1, 2.38 ERA). This line opened with the Pirates listed as a -135 home favorite and the Diamondbacks a +120 road dog. Pros are riding the hot hand, steaming Pittsburgh up from -135 to -140. The Pirates are receiving 68% of bets and 86% of money, signaling a sharp "low bets, higher dollars" bet discrepancy. Favorites off a blowout win of nine runs or more are 21-10 (68%) this season. Home favorites off a win receiving 5-cents of steam or more are 82-33 (71%). Non-division favorites off a win are 157-91 (63%). Pittsburgh is 9-3 as a favorite. Keller has an ERA of 0.43 in three May starts. The total is 8.5 with some shops juicing the over to -115. The forecast calls for high 60s with 7-10 MPH winds blowing out to dead center. The over is 7-3 in the last ten Pirates home games. The over is 6-2 in the last eight Diamondbacks road games.