Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Sunday April 16

71
 

 

 

Today the weekend wraps up with a loaded slate of 15 MLB games. You can track the latest odds and percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits.

In the meantime, let’s examine a pair of matchups receiving sharp action today…

 

1:35 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees (-160, 7)

After dropping the first two games of the series, the Yankees (9-6) bounced back with a 6-1 win on Saturday, taking care of business as -150 home favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, Minnesota (10-5) hands the ball to righty Pablo Lopez (1-0, 1.35 ERA) and New York rebuttals with fellow righty Gerrit Cole (3-0, 1.40 ERA). This line opened with the Yankees listed as a -150 home favorite and the Twins a +135 road dog. Sharps have pounced on the Yankees at a relatively short home price with their ace on the mound, steaming New York up from -150 to -160. The Yankees are receiving 87% of bets and 95% of money, signaling heavy "Pro and Joe" support in their favor. Non-division favorites off a win are 50-27 (65%) this season. New York also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7), as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the "better" team.

 

1:40 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (-180, 9) at Cincinnati Reds 

The Reds (6-8) have taken two of three so far in this four-game series, winning 13-0 yesterday as short +100 home dogs. In this afternoon’s series finale, Philadelphia (5-10) hands the ball to righty Aaron Nola (0-2, 7.04 ERA) and Cincinnati (6-8) counters with fellow righty Luis Cessa (0-1, 7.00 ERA). This line opened with the Phillies listed as a -165 road favorite and the Reds a +150 home dog. Pros are banking on Philadelphia to bounce back and earn a split, steaming the Phillies up from -165 to -180. The Phillies are receiving 70% of bets but 80% of money, signaling a heavy combination of public and sharp support. Non-division road favorites are 34-17 (67%) this season. Road favorites who made the playoffs the previous season playing teams who missed the playoffs are 31-15 (67%). The Phillies have the edge at the plate, hitting .277 compared to .253 for the Reds. Cincinnati has the more taxed bullpen going into today’s game, pitching 13 innings over the past 3 games compared to 11 for Philadelphia. Wiseguys have also leaned over, as the total is 9 with the over juiced to -120. Currently 70% of bets but 89% of money is on the over, a sharp bet discrepancy. The forecast calls for high 50s with 15 MPH winds blowing out to left center.