Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday’s MLB slate…
12:35 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds (-110, 9.5)
This is the final game of a four-game series. After dropping the first two games, the Reds (51-46) bounced back with a 3-2 win on Wednesday, cashing as -110 home favorites. In this early afternoon series finale, the Giants (54-42) hand the ball to righty Alex Cobb (6-2, 2.82 ERA) and the Reds counter with lefty Andrew Abbott (4-2, 2.45 ERA). This line opened with San Francisco listed as high as a -130 road favorite and Cincinnati a +110 home dog. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take. However, despite the even ticket split we’ve seen the line fall away from the Giants (-130 to -110) and toward the Reds (+110 to -110). This signals smart money backing the Reds to earn a series split. Cincinnati has the edge at the plate, hitting .252 vs .246. Pros are also leaning over as the total is 9.5 with the over juiced to -115. The forecast calls for low 80s with 5-10 MPH winds blowing out to left center. Cobb has a 1.24 ERA at home but a 4.15 ERA on the road.
9:40 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (-190, 8.5) at Oakland Athletics
The Astros (53-43) just split a two-game series at the Rockies, winning 4-1 yesterday as -160 road favorites. Meanwhile, the Athletics (27-71) just took two of three from the Red Sox, winning 6-5 yesterday as +190 home dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Astros start righty J.P. France (4-3, 3.31 ERA) and the Athletics counter with lefty Hogan Harris (2-3, 6.51 ERA). This line opened with Houston listed as a -180 road favorite and Oakland a +165 home dog. Pros have laid the chalk with the Astros, steaming Houston up from -180 to -190. The Astros are receiving 89% of bets and 94% of money, signaling a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. The Astros are 16-10 (62%) against lefties and 19-11 (63%) against divisional opponents this season. Teams who made the playoffs last season are 37-7 (84%) against the Athletics. Houston has a big edge at the plate (hitting .250 vs .221) and on the mound (team ERA 3.75 vs 6.00). The Astros are 28-21 on the road. The Athletics are 14-36 at home. Houston is a perfect 6-0 against Oakland this season. France has a 2.18 ERA on the road compared to 4.91 at home. Harris has a 12.46 ERA in two July starts. Houston has a +14 bullpen rating compared to -33 for Oakland.
