Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday’s betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday’s MLB action…
1:05 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles (-130, 8.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The Orioles (42-25) won the opener 11-6, cashing as +105 home dogs. Then the Blue Jays (38-31) bounced back with a 3-1 win on Wednesday, taking care of business as -110 road favorites. In this early afternoon series finale, Toronto hands the ball to lefty Yusei Kikuchi (6-2, 4.34 ERA) and Baltimore counters with righty Tyler Wells (5-2, 3.24 ERA). This line opened with the Orioles listed as a -120 home favorite and the Blue Jays a +110 road dog. Sharps have pounced on Baltimore laying a cheap chalk price at home, steaming the Orioles up from -120 to -130. Baltimore is receiving 63% of bets but 91% of money, signaling slight public support but also heavy sharp action. The Orioles are 17-7 (71%) off a loss this season. Baltimore is 16-8 against lefties, 25-7 as a favorite and 21-13 at home. The Orioles have the fresher bullpen, tossing 7.2 innings over the past three games compared to 10.2 innings for the Blue Jays. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 9 to 8.5 at several shops. Wells has a 2.49 ERA at home (versus 4.26 on the road). Kikuchi has a 5.00 ERA on the road (versus 3.56 at home).
8:05 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers (-140, 8)
This is the fourth and final game of a four-game series. After dropping the first two games, the Rangers (42-25) bounced back with a 6-3 win yesterday, cashing as -140 home favorites. In tonight’s series finale, the Angels (38-32) turn to star righty Shohei Ohtani (5-2, 3.32 ERA) and the Rangers send out fellow righty Nathan Eovaldi (9-2, 2.49 ERA). This line opened with Texas listed as a -125 home favorite and Los Angeles a +115 road dog. The public is rushing to the window to grab Ohtani and the Angels at plus money. However, we’ve actually seen this line move further to the Rangers -125 to -140. This signals smart money fading the trendy dog and instead laying the chalk with Texas. The Rangers are receiving 45% of bets but 65% of money, a notable sharp contrarian bet discrepancy. Home favorites off a win receiving 5-cents of steam or more are 110-53 (68%) this season, producing a 9% ROI. The Rangers are 26-13 as a favorite, 29-17 against righties and 22-11 at home. Texas is 7-1 in Eovaldi’s last eight starts. Ohtani has a 2.66 ERA at home but 3.60 ERA on the road. The Rangers have the edge at the plate, hitting .272 versus .255 for the Angels.
