Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Wednesday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Wednesday’s MLB action…
1:10 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians (-200, 10.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The Royals (29-74) won the opener 5-3, cashing as +175 road dogs. Then the Guardians (50-51) bounced back with a 5-1 win yesterday, taking care of business as -200 home favorites. In this early afternoon series finale, the Royals start righty Alec Marsh (0-4, 6.20 ERA) and the Guardians send out fellow righty Gavin Williams (1-2, 3.74 ERA). This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -180 home favorite and Kansas City a +165 road dog. Pros aren’t scared off by the expensive price and have steamed the Guardians up from -180 to -200. Cleveland is receiving 87% of bets and 94% of money, signaling both public and sharp support. The Guardians have the better bats (hitting .253 vs .232), better pitching (team ERA 3.85 vs 5.23) and better bullpen (rating +8 vs -26). Kansas City is just 14-38 on the road, 27-64 as a dog, 21-56 against righties and 10-26 in the division. Williams has made two starts against the Royals this season and Cleveland has won both games. Williams went 5.2 innings giving up 3 runs and striking out 7 in a 10-6 win on July 8th and went 7 innings giving up no runs and striking out 6 in a 2-1 win on June 27th.
8:10 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs (-115, 9) at Chicago White Sox
The Cubs (49-51) won last night’s Interleague series opener 7-3, cashing as -115 road favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Cubs hand the ball to righty Marcus Stroman (10-7, 3.09 ERA) and the White Sox (41-61) counter with fellow righty Lance Lynn (6-9, 6.18 ERA). This line opened at a virtual pick’em with both sides listed at roughly -105 odds. Sharps have pounced on the Cubs at a cheap chalk price, steaming the Cubs up to -115. The Cubs are receiving 80% of bets and 89% of money, signaling a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. Sweet spot short road favorites -115 to -150 are 176-121 (59%) this season with a 5% ROI. Road Interleague favorites off a win are 55-30 (65%) this season with a 9% ROI. The Cubs have the edge at the plate (hitting .253 vs .238) and on the mound (team ERA 4.11 vs 4.60). The Cubs also have the better bullpen (+4 vs -7). The Cubs are 7-4 since the All Star Break. The White Sox are 3-7. The Cubs are 29-19 (60%) as a favorite. The White Sox are 22-43 (34%) as a dog and just 29-47 (38%) against righties.
