Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Wednesday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Wednesday’s MLB action…
1:10 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (-190, 8.5) at Detroit Tigers
The Tigers (27-37) won Monday’s Interleague series opener 6-5 in extra innings, cashing as +210 home dogs. Then yesterday’s matchup was rained out. In this early afternoon first game of a doubleheader, the Braves (40-26) start righty Spencer Strider (6-2, 3.79 ERA) and the Tigers counter with fellow righty Michael Lorenzen (2-3, 3.75 ERA). This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -170 road favorite and Detroit a +155 home dog. Sharps have gotten down hard on the Braves, steaming Atlanta up from -170 to -190. When both teams had the previous day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 61-33 (65%) this season. Road Interleague favorites are 62-34 (65%). The Braves have the better bets (hitting .263 vs .225) and superior pitching (team ERA 3.78 vs 4.48). Atlanta is 34-22 as a favorite, 29-21 against righties and 20-11 on the road. Detroit is 22-35 as a dog, 22-29 against righties and 15-16 at home. The Braves have the fresher bullpen, throwing 11.1 innings over the past three games compared to 19.1 innings for the Tigers. Atlanta is 12-9 in day games. Detroit is 13-21. Strider has a 2.86 ERA on the road (compared to 4.62 at home). Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 9 to 8.5. The under is receiving 68% of bets but 92% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy.
9:40 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians at San Diego Padres (-150, 8)
The Padres (32-34) took Tuesday night’s series opener 6-3, cruising as -180 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Guardians (31-35) turn to righty Aaron Civale (2-1, 2.31 ERA) and the Padres go with fellow righty Michael Wacha (6-2, 3.18 ERA). This line opened with San Diego listed as a -140 home favorite and Cleveland a +130 road dog. Pros are riding the hot hand, steaming the Padres up from -140 to -150. San Diego is receiving 75% of bets and 89% of money, signaling a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. Home favorites off a win receiving 5-cents of steam or more are 109-53 (67%) this season, producing a 9% ROI. The Padres have value as a Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team, and correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team. Wacha has given up one earned run or less in 5 of his last 7 starts. The total is 8 with the under juiced to -115, signaling some under liability. The under is only receiving 31% of bets but 40% of money, a sharp contrarian bet split. The forecast calls for mid 60s with 5-10 MPH winds blowing in from left center. These are two of the best under teams in baseball, with San Diego 41-22 to the under and Cleveland 39-25 to the under.
