Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Wednesday June 14

18
 

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Wednesday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

 

You can also track the latest odds and percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Wednesday’s MLB action…

 

1:10 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (-190, 8.5) at Detroit Tigers

The Tigers (27-37) won Monday’s Interleague series opener 6-5 in extra innings, cashing as +210 home dogs. Then yesterday’s matchup was rained out. In this early afternoon first game of a doubleheader, the Braves (40-26) start righty Spencer Strider (6-2, 3.79 ERA) and the Tigers counter with fellow righty Michael Lorenzen (2-3, 3.75 ERA). This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -170 road favorite and Detroit a +155 home dog. Sharps have gotten down hard on the Braves, steaming Atlanta up from -170 to -190. When both teams had the previous day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 61-33 (65%) this season. Road Interleague favorites are 62-34 (65%). The Braves have the better bets (hitting .263 vs .225) and superior pitching (team ERA 3.78 vs 4.48). Atlanta is 34-22 as a favorite, 29-21 against righties and 20-11 on the road. Detroit is 22-35 as a dog, 22-29 against righties and 15-16 at home. The Braves have the fresher bullpen, throwing 11.1 innings over the past three games compared to 19.1 innings for the Tigers. Atlanta is 12-9 in day games. Detroit is 13-21. Strider has a 2.86 ERA on the road (compared to 4.62 at home). Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 9 to 8.5. The under is receiving 68% of bets but 92% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy. 

 

9:40 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians at San Diego Padres (-150, 8) 

The Padres (32-34) took Tuesday night’s series opener 6-3, cruising as -180 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Guardians (31-35) turn to righty Aaron Civale (2-1, 2.31 ERA) and the Padres go with fellow righty Michael Wacha (6-2, 3.18 ERA). This line opened with San Diego listed as a -140 home favorite and Cleveland a +130 road dog. Pros are riding the hot hand, steaming the Padres up from -140 to -150. San Diego is receiving 75% of bets and 89% of money, signaling a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. Home favorites off a win receiving 5-cents of steam or more are 109-53 (67%) this season, producing a 9% ROI. The Padres have value as a Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team, and correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team. Wacha has given up one earned run or less in 5 of his last 7 starts. The total is 8 with the under juiced to -115, signaling some under liability. The under is only receiving 31% of bets but 40% of money, a sharp contrarian bet split. The forecast calls for mid 60s with 5-10 MPH winds blowing in from left center. These are two of the best under teams in baseball, with San Diego 41-22 to the under and Cleveland 39-25 to the under.