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Key Info:
- Hold off on placing any dinger bets until starting lineups are confirmed. Major sportsbooks will grade your bet as action even if your player only gets a single pinch-hit appearance — and we want to avoid that headache.
- This article will be posted before lineups are out, but it will be updated as lineups are confirmed and weather conditions develop.
Recap
Another tough week last week. We had a Bellinger fly out to deep center which cost us a great cash. We’ve never been more due.
Top MLB Resources:
What is Dinger Tuesday?
If this is your first Dinger Tuesday, here’s a quick recap: FanDuel offers 50% profit boosts on any home run prop—eligible on one bet, every Tuesday. This works on both straight bets or parlays. Additionally, DraftKings is featuring a “No Sweat Home Run Bet,” allowing you to place a home run prop wager with a safety net—if your bet loses, you receive a bonus bet refund.
Every Tuesday you can expect home run prop bet handicapping here at VSiN, analyzing weather conditions, ballpark factors, batter vs pitcher matchups, extended splits, and more. It’s a great way to have a little fun on some exciting long shot bets. Let’s dive in.
Weather & Ballpark Report
Alright folks, I’m stoked to come to you with some good news to kick off today’s article. We have positive weather signs across a number of ballparks indicating we may have a dinger fest on our hands today.
Here’s what you need to know:
This weather report is courtesy of BallparkPal. (We’re not affiliated, but we love their product. Sign up for full access to their suite of tools)
Top Hitters Parks
- Sutter Health Park (MIN @ ATH): +38% HR boost with strong wind blowing out and temps pushing 80°. Minor league park, minimal structure — prime launch conditions.
- Great American Ball Park (MIL @ CIN): +31% HR boost with solid carry. GABP is already one of the best HR parks in baseball — sprinkle in a little extra weather juice and it’s a go-zone.
- Rate Field (DET @ CHW): +25% HR boost. Wind out, humidity up. We don’t always get this kind of green light in Chicago — take advantage.
Sneaky Good Spots
- Rogers Centre (PHI @ TOR): +16% HR boost — not massive, but steady, with light wind helping lift to right field.
- Yankee Stadium (CLE @ NYY): +15% HR bump — short porch is always live, wind is manageable, and the weather model likes it.
- Busch Stadium (KC @ STL): +14% HR boost — nice warm night, wind to right, a bump worth noting.
Pitcher Report
As of late, I’m much more heavily leaning into the pitcher report than the weather. But when the stars align and we’re seeing positive factors across both- Let’s pounce.
Head to the pitchers section of dingertuesday.com to see the latest HR/BF report for your own handicapping, but here are the two standouts to me:
Bowden Francis sits atop the list, with his 15 homers given up on the season. His 6.33% HR/BF factor is one of the worst in the league and today he faces a Phillies lineup with TONS of pop. With great conditions in Toronto we’re making this a can’t miss spot.
Next on the list is Tanner Bibee. We’ve had to fade Bibee so many times this season because he’s been pitching at home, but today…today the stars have aligned.
Bibee faces the most powerful lineup in baseball, on the road, in a stadium KNOWN for producing tons of long balls. This is another great spot to attack.
I’m going in on some Phillies and Yankees hitters today but I don’t think you’d be crazy to take a gander at some of the other folks at the top of the list- George Kirby, Cade Horton, Tomoyuki Sugano. The weather conditions in those parks are making me fade at the moment, but shoot your shot.
Now for the Batter Report.
Batter Report
Apart from the two that I just mentioned above, it’s going to be hard for me to stay away from the Athletics. We’ve been all over the Athletics this season as their lineup just has tons of power. Playing in a minor league stadium is an automatic cheat code and with prime weather conditions today, I’ll probably go back to the well and sprinkle in a few classics.
Here’s the situation with the Phillies. I’m seeing Schwarber’s odds at +220 which I hate although it’s probably a sound play. I much prefer Bryce Harper who’s at +310 right now. Keep in mind Bryce is coming back from injury if he ends up playing today, but he is 1 for 1 with a homer in his career vs Francis. I’m all about playing this lefty vs righty matchup and those odds seem more than justifiable to me.
If you want a look at some long shots. I’d say Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh are the way to go. Marsh is 2 for 2 vs Francis, and also is batting incredibly on the road. His .400 slugging percentage (vs .244 at home) might continue to climb with another great opportunity today.
Stott on the other hand is due for a homer. He’s slumping a bit right now, but he’s getting a GREAT matchup today. It’s a prime opportunity and the odds say take a gamble.
On the Yankees side of things, we’ll also be trying to find a lefty. If you want to play the historical matchups, Ben Rice has already gone yard against Bibee once and he may do it again. The man is also insanely hot right now. He’s batting .333 over his last 7 days with two homers. I could see another one coming today with conditions at Yankee Stadium just right.
If you want to continue to dive into some historical matchups, Anthony Volpe is 3 for 8 with a homer off Bibee too. At +630 this could be easily worth a shot.
Lastly, we took Bellinger last week who flied out to deep centerfield breaking our hearts. And just staring at the numbers I can’t help but think here’s a guy who’s due. His odds are coming in at +400 and could warrant a play as well.
Apart from this, I said I’d take a look at the As.
Pablo Lopez isn’t a guy who’s giving up too many home runs. He’s also been nasty against the As lineup, limiting them to a .132 batting average.
This is purely a weather factor play here, but I could get behind Soderstrom or Lawrence Butler. Lopez is slightly worse vs lefties, and given the power of those two, it’s also worth a look.
The Official Picks
I will update this article once the lineups are solidified (as a reminder, I strongly recommend not to place bets until lineups are out) but at the moment we’re looking at:
- Bryce Harper +310 (Might not be in lineup)
- Bryson Stott +680
- Ben Rice +360
- Cody Bellinger +400
- Lawrence Butler +400
Check back here for updates.
The Nick Castellanos vs. Tragic Events Home Run Meter
Current status: Low
Not seeing a play on the meme today. Our day will come eventually.
Happy Dinger Tuesday everyone. Let’s get some cashes!
