Dinger Tuesday Picks & Home Run Prop Betting Analysis – Tuesday May 13th

Key Info:

1. Hold off on placing any dinger bets until starting lineups are confirmed. Major sportsbooks will grade your bet as action even if your player only gets a single pinch-hit appearance — and we want to avoid that headache.
2. This article will be posted before lineups are out, but it will be updated as lineups are confirmed and weather conditions develop.

Recap

Rough week last week, as we put up a 0 spot. Rooker and O’Hoppe both went 3 for 4 with Chourio going 2 for 4. Unfortunately we couldn’t come up with a dinger.

It’s a new week, and I’m feeling good. Let’s get after it.

What is Dinger Tuesday?

If this is your first Dinger Tuesday, here’s a quick recap: FanDuel offers 50% profit boosts on any home run prop—eligible on one bet, every Tuesday. This works on both straight bets or parlays. Additionally, DraftKings is featuring a “No Sweat Home Run Bet,” allowing you to place a home run prop wager with a safety net—if your bet loses, you receive a bonus bet refund.

Every Tuesday you can expect home run prop bet handicapping here at VSiN, analyzing weather conditions, ballpark factors, batter vs pitcher matchups, extended splits, and more. It’s a great way to have a little fun on some exciting long shot bets. Let’s dive in.

Weather & Ballpark Report

It’s chaos at the Dinger Tuesday handicapping HQ this morning (DTHHQ) as we’re looking at potential rain outs in 7 of 12 outdoor ballparks. So here’s the deal. We’ll play this like a normal DT, but I may lean towards plays with a better shot of actually taking place tonight. Here we go…

To keep you in the loop, rain isn’t always a bad thing. 

^great movie 

But seriously. Here’s what our friends at Ballpark Pal said: “This sort of forecast isn’t all that bad for offense, though (as long as the games actually get played) as the high humidity and low pressure associated with storms helps the ball fly a bit farther.”

So which parks are showing the best pop for today?

• Great American Ball Park (Cincinnati) +37% HR boost
• Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia) +12% HR boost
• Progressive Field (Cleveland) +10% HR boost

Let’s break it down.

Cincinnati is today’s headline. Great American Ball Park already leads the league as the #1 home run stadium in baseball over the last three years, and today it gets a boost from the weather. High humidity and low atmospheric pressure create prime carry conditions. Add in warm temps and a slight breeze out? Could be a launch pad tonight. 

Citizens Bank Park is another winner. Ranked #5 in home run factor over the past three seasons, it’s already friendly to power hitters. Toss in today’s humidity and soft air pressure, and it becomes a top-tier target. Ball should be flying in Philly.

Progressive Field, on the other hand, is tricky. Yes, we’re seeing a decent +10% bump in home run probability thanks to the same low-pressure, high-moisture cocktail — but this is still a pitcher-friendly park at its core. Even with the conditions on our side, I’m likely staying away unless a specific matchup pops. 

With weather creating some uncertainty in the boosted parks above, we may end up leaning on some of the classic power spots on the slate. Dodger Stadium — ranked #2 in home runs over the last three seasons — and Globe Life Field in Texas — sitting at #6 in that same span — are both looking solid tonight with stable conditions.

I’m eyeing a few strong matchups in those parks, and they’ll likely take center stage when it comes time for the official plays of the day.

Pitcher Report

The best pitchers to attack today can be found on this spreadsheet. 

José Berríos is your top look. He gave up 31 home runs last season, second-most in MLB, and he’s already allowed 8 this year. That puts him right on pace to stay in the top tier of dinger-friendly arms. 

Sonny Gray isn’t quite as obvious, but he’s quietly given up 6 home runs through 8 starts — and today, he’s pitching in Citizens Bank Park, one of the best parks for power. Combine that with a red-hot Phillies lineup and some humidity-induced carry, and this could be a good spot to exploit.

Jonathan Cannon takes the mound for the White Sox. While his 6 home runs allowed over 8 starts might not raise alarms, his opponent Barrel% tells a different story. He’s getting squared up — and in a park like Great American Ball Park, with a 37% HR boost on deck, that’s a dangerous combo. As an added bonus, we have a Dinger Tuesday Double Dipper (trademark) on our hands. The White Sox bullpen has allowed a league second most, 23 home runs this season. They lead the league in meatball pitch percentage as well. Big opportunities today in Cinci. 

Jeffrey Springs is another arm worth watching today. Anytime someone’s facing the Dodgers in LA, it’s worth a closer look — and Springs is on the bump tonight.

He’s given up 6 home runs through 8 starts, right in line with the trend we’ve seen across a few middling arms today. But here’s the kicker: two of those starts came against the White Sox, which makes the stat line look a bit softer than it probably should. Facing this Dodgers lineup is a different animal.

Digging into some of the batter vs. pitcher matchups, there are a few LA hitters with strong underlying metrics against Springs’ pitch mix. This feels like a sneaky-good spot to grab some value on Dodgers bats with legit pop.

Kyle Freeland takes the mound for the Rockies tonight with an 0-5 record and a bloated 6.41 ERA. While he’s only allowed 3 home runs so far this season, don’t let that fool you — his average exit velocity and Hard Hit% are among the worst on the slate. His HR rate was significantly higher last year, and all signs point to regression incoming. He’s overdue to get tagged.

One last note: if you’re digging into Guardians vs Brewers, be aware of Logan Allen. His 5.09% home run rate is the worst on the board today. I’m likely passing, but if you’re hunting for a contrarian edge, this is a data-backed angle to consider.

Batter Report

After analyzing all the factors on board. I’m attacking the following teams (Lineups still TBD, but here’s the odds from FanDuel)

Reds:

There are a few intriguing options in this Reds lineup, but the most obvious one has to be Elly De La Cruz.

Elly continues to flash elite exit velocity and hard-hit rates, consistently ranking among the top percentile in both categories. He’s far more comfortable against right-handed pitching, and tonight’s matchup lines up perfectly — facing Jonathan Cannon, whose Barrel% and HR/PA suggest he’s highly vulnerable, especially in a power-friendly setting.

Add in the hitter-friendly conditions at Great American Ball Park — currently showing a +37% HR boost — and this feels like a prime spot for Elly to get back on track and do some serious damage. All signs point to a bounce-back performance.

Rangers:

The Rangers recently recalled Jake Burger from Triple-A after a sluggish start to the season — but don’t let the early struggles fool you. This is a guy with serious power upside, having hit 23 home runs last year and 28 the season before.

Burger’s got the kind of raw strength that can change a game with one swing, and tonight’s matchup gives him a real shot to remind everyone why he’s a threat at the plate. He’s facing a pitcher whose arsenal lines up perfectly with what Burger likes to see — especially when you dive into his success against certain pitch types.

If you’re hunting for a sneaky dinger play with big-time upside, Burger’s a name to circle.

Dodgers:

I’m leaning into the historical matchup here. Kiké (Enrique) Hernández is 4-for-9 lifetime against Jeffrey Springs with a home run already on the ledger — and the profile suggests he could add another tonight.

According to BallparkPal, Kiké holds an A- grade vs. left-handed four-seamers, which just so happens to make up 43% of Springs’ pitch mix. That’s a green light against a pitch he sees well, from a guy he’s already taken deep.

To top it off, he’s in form — hitting .353 with a .588 slugging percentage over the last 7 days. Strong matchup, hot bat, proven track record… this feels like a prime opportunity to cash in.

The Official Picks

I will update this article once the lineups are solidified (as a reminder, I strongly recommend not to place bets until lineups are out) but at the moment we’re looking at:

1. Elly De La Cruz +400
2. Jake Burger +420
3. Enrique Hernandez +450

I might add a small unit play to some other Reds players should the game be on. Check back here for updates.

*Update: I’m adding Jonathan Aranda on Tampa Bay into my full unit plays today. He’s 4 for 8 with 2 dingers in his career vs Berrios who we know is one of the pitchers most prone to giving up home runs. Seeing his odds sit at +520 make this a no brainer play.

The Nick Castellanos vs. Tragic Events Home Run Meter

Current status: low

Can’t believe we blew it last week as Castellanos delivered a homer on Tuesday. The people are wondering…is the meme over? Forget what the people say, we’re holding strong folks. The meter says no homer today. Be advised.

Happy Dinger Tuesday everyone. Let’s get a cash. Tell em’ Al.