Dinger Tuesday Picks & Home Run Prop Betting Analysis – Tuesday May 20th

Key Info:

1. Hold off on placing any dinger bets until starting lineups are confirmed. Major sportsbooks will grade your bet as action even if your player only gets a single pinch-hit appearance — and we want to avoid that headache.
2. This article will be posted before lineups are out, but it will be updated as lineups are confirmed and weather conditions develop.

Recap

Great bounce back week for us last week as we cashed in on both Elly and Aranda. Puts us up 10.4 units on the season. Let’s keep the momentum going.

What is Dinger Tuesday?

If this is your first Dinger Tuesday, here’s a quick recap: FanDuel offers 50% profit boosts on any home run prop—eligible on one bet, every Tuesday. This works on both straight bets or parlays. Additionally, DraftKings is featuring a “No Sweat Home Run Bet,” allowing you to place a home run prop wager with a safety net—if your bet loses, you receive a bonus bet refund.

Every Tuesday you can expect home run prop bet handicapping here at VSiN, analyzing weather conditions, ballpark factors, batter vs pitcher matchups, extended splits, and more. It’s a great way to have a little fun on some exciting long shot bets. Let’s dive in.

Weather & Ballpark Report

Across most of the country we’re looking at cool temps, patchy rain, and questionable wind patterns, but don’t worry, we’ve got a few clear spots to target and a couple you’ll want to avoid altogether.

Let’s start with the top hitting environments on the board:

George M. Steinbrenner Field (TB)

Sutter Health Park (ATH)

Both of these minor league parks are flashing green lights. Temps will sit in the low-to-mid 80s at first pitch with wind blowing out to center field — a powerful combo for carry. Plus, these parks lack the towering stadium walls and upper decks of most MLB venues, meaning wind actually matters here. Both rank top 10 in home run factor already, and the conditions tonight only amplify the upside. If you’re looking for pure launchpad potential, these are your best bets. Exploiting two minor league stadiums almost sounds like a cheat code.

Besides for these two, nothing really pops out. Here’s a quick TLDR summary of what we’re looking at for tonight:

Top HR Spots: Steinbrenner (TB), Sutter Health (ATH), Busch (STL – especially for lefties)
Cold/Bad Weather Alerts: Minnesota, Chicago, Boston
Neutral but Always With Potential: Coors (slight downgrade), Dodger Stadium (mild boost), Yankee Stadium (watch for wind shifts late)

Lastly, if you’re interested…here are the top 20 ballparks by home run factor this year (in order):

• Oriole Park at Camden Yards (Orioles)
• Rogers Centre (Blue Jays)
• Dodger Stadium (Dodgers)
• Great American Ball Park (Reds)
• Angel Stadium (Angels)
• Yankee Stadium (Yankees)
• Sutter Health Park (Athletics)
• George M. Steinbrenner Field (Rays)
• T-Mobile Park (Mariners)
• Citizens Bank Park (Phillies)
• Daikin Park (Astros)
• Nationals Park (Nationals)
• Coors Field (Rockies)
• Citi Field (Mets)
• Rate Field (White Sox)
• Wrigley Field (Cubs)
• Truist Park (Braves)
• Fenway Park (Red Sox)
• Chase Field (D-backs)
• Comerica Park (Tigers)

Pitcher Report

The best pitchers to attack today can be found on this spreadsheet. 

Let’s start with this: I’m hammering the matchup in Tampa tonight. I like both sides of this one- and yes, we’ve already cashed fading Zack Littell this season, so we’re going back to the well. On the flip side, we’ve got a pitcher making his first MLB start since 2023. That’s enough to get my attention.

Starting with Littell — he’s been getting shelled all year. The metrics are ugly:

• 6th percentile in opponent Barrel%
• 20th percentile in Hard Hit%
• 15th percentile in fastball velocity
• 23rd percentile in average exit velocity

He’s just getting squared up, plain and simple. His splits lean slightly worse against lefties, but honestly, you can feel good targeting either side of the plate here.

Now onto Brandon Walter– he’s been solid in the minors, giving up just 9 runs across ~34 innings. But this is a step up. Jumping back into the bigs especially in a hitter-friendly park is no easy feat. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some damage done to the 28 year old trying to reestablish himself in the league. Walter gives up more homers to righties, so that’s where ill be spending my attention in the batters section.

I’m leaning into our weather x pitcher combo play here and taking a look at the matchup with the Athletics and Angels.

Gunnar Hoglund gets the start for the A’s today, making just his fourth appearance of the season. His last outing? A rough one- the Dodgers lit him up for three home runs.

Now he’s pitching in Sacramento, where conditions are favorable for power, and he’s up against an Angels lineup that ranks 3rd in the league in home runs. Given the setup, this feels like another spot where Hoglund could easily get tagged again. I like the odds of the long ball showing up here.

On the other side, Kyle Hendricks takes the mound for the Angels. His 5.18 ERA suggests that age might finally be catching up with the veteran righty. He’s allowed a home run in 7 of his last 8 starts, and with an A’s lineup that’s shown they can swing it, I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets tagged again tonight.

Some more pitchers worth taking a look at:

Jameson Taillon has the worst home runs per batter faced ratio on the board today. He’s going down to Miami which isn’t the most home run friendly park though it’s impossible to ignore his stats. He just faced this Marlins team where he gave up 3 long balls in 6 innings, and that’s coming right after a terrible performance against the Mets where he gave up 4 homers in 4 innings.

Patrick Corbin is back on the board tonight Corbin has been one of the most reliable arms to fade when it comes to long balls over the last few seasons. He’s already surrendered 6 homers through his first 7 starts in 2025, and that’s right in line with his trend of finishing near the top in HRs allowed year after year.

Tonight, he faces a Yankees lineup that ranks second in home runs — and with right-handed power all over that roster, this feels like a rough matchup waiting to happen. The ball doesn’t need much help in Yankee Stadium, and Corbin might be the one doing the heavy lifting.

Batter Report

After analyzing all the factors on board. I’m attacking the following teams (Lineups still TBD, but here’s the odds from FanDuel)

A note that the odds for Angels and As players were just so incredibly low. For most hitters the value was just not worth it.

Astros:

Jeremy Pena is 3 for 7 with a home run already of Littell. He’s hitting the ball incredibly well right now, batting .407 over the last 7 days. His good contact mixed with the right conditions plus historical success makes his odds at +440 a great option. I’m all in on Pena tonight to get it done.

Rays:

Yandy Díaz is firmly on the radar tonight against Brandon Walter, and the matchup checks a lot of boxes.

Walter is a lefty making his first MLB start of the season, and Díaz grades out better vs. left-handed pitching. More specifically, Walter throws a slider 29% of the time, and Díaz has an A grade against left-handed sliders, making this a perfect pitch-profile matchup.

Add in the favorable hitting conditions at Steinbrenner Field- warm weather and wind blowing out, this sets up as a sneaky good spot for Díaz to leave the yard. He sees this type of arm and arsenal extremely well. At +400 I’m in.

Marlins:

Jameson Taillon just faced this Marlins lineup a few days ago, and Kyle Stowers made him pay- launching two home runs off him in that outing.

Stowers is sitting on 10 homers this season and hasn’t hit one since that game six days ago, but he’s still squaring the ball up with some of the best underlying metrics in the league. At +420, this is a matchup worth going back to. If the swing is still there, he’s got a real shot to take Taillon deep again.

The Official Picks

I will update this article once the lineups are solidified (as a reminder, I strongly recommend not to place bets until lineups are out) but at the moment we’re looking at:

1. Jeremy Pena +440
2. Yandy Diaz +400
3. Kyle Stowers +420

Half Unit Plays: Miguel Andujar & DJ LeMahieu

Andujar is 3/3 vs Hendricks and hitting the ball real well right now. An injury has kept him out over the last two days, but if he’s back in the lineup tonight, I like his odds. At +700 there’s a lot of value.

This one might be stat of the day, but DJ LeMahieu is 22 for 58 with 6 home runs vs Corbin. He’s sitting at +900. We’ll see if he’s in the lineup today, but if he is… Let’s ride.

Check back here for updates.

The Nick Castellanos vs. Tragic Events Home Run Meter

Current status: low

Nothing new to report. No play on Nick today.

Happy Dinger Tuesday everyone. Let’s keep the momentum going baby!