Dinger Tuesday Picks – Tuesday April 22nd

April 22nd. Earth Day. Dinger Tuesday.

I like to think of Dinger Tuesday as the anti–Earth Day. Sure, there’s green on the field and dirt on the mound, but today, we’re hoping every ball leaves the planet.

Last week, we went 1-for-3 on our picks. Soto came through, but Story and Elly didn’t deliver. That said, our read on the Boston game was spot-on—four home runs flew out, just like we predicted. I’m rolling that same strategy into today’s slate, eyeing a few juicy pitching matchups we can exploit.

What is Dinger Tuesday?

If this is your first Dinger Tuesday, here’s a quick recap: FanDuel offers 50% profit boosts on any home run prop—eligible on one bet, every Tuesday. This works on both straight bets or parlays. Additionally, DraftKings is featuring a “No Sweat Home Run Bet,” allowing you to place a home run prop wager with a safety net—if your bet loses, you receive a bonus bet refund.

Every Tuesday you can expect home run prop bet handicapping here at VSiN, analyzing weather conditions, ballpark factors, batter vs pitcher matchups, extended splits, and more. It’s a great way to have a little fun on some exciting long shot bets. Let’s dive in.

Weather & Ballpark Report

BallparkPal’s model is throwing a bit of cold water on any dreams of a home run derby today. It doesn’t appear as though we’ll be seeing prime conditions like we did over the weekend, but nonetheless there will be a few angles we can dive into.

Angel Stadium is the lone bright spot, with a modest +3% boost to home run probability—just enough to put it on the radar. Fenway’s a mixed bag: HR carry is down 8%, but the overall run environment is up a hefty 16%, thanks to warm temps and a swirling breeze toward the Monster.

Think fewer bombs, more doubles that might sneak over. As for the rest of the league? Headwinds and heavy air dominate. Not ideal for fly balls. Today’s edge is going to come from exploiting shaky arms and hot bats—not the weather.

Pitcher Report

There’s a few pitchers I like today who we can look to take advantage of. Here’s the top 3:

1. Zack Littell

Littell is 0-4 to start the season with 6 homers given up. He faces a Diamondbacks team who has been hitting the ball nicely currently 3rd in the league in SLG and 7th in HRs. As an added bonus the Rays bullpen has given up a league high 14 home runs this season. Double the opportunity there to cash in on an Arizona homer. A Dinger Tuesday Double as they say in the biz.

2. Bailey Ober

We cashed in against Ober last week and I like going back to the well here. Ober has given up 5 bombs this year, tied for 13th most in the league and that’s on top of finishing last season with 27 long balls given up. Target field has seen 7% more home runs than the league average ballpark so this could be a good play for today.

3. Patrick Corbin

The last time Patrick Corbin didn’t finish among the top 20 in home runs allowed was back in 2020. This season, he’s right on trend—his 25 homers allowed are tied for 19th in the league. With Oakland swinging the bats well (7th in home runs, 4th in slugging), this sets up as a prime spot to target. Corbin has only held opponents to a single home run in two of his starts this year, so some regression feels likely. Don’t be surprised if a few leave the yard tonight

Honorable Mentions:

Dean Kremer (Orioles) and Tanner Bibee (Guardians) are both worth a look today—each has been tagged for plenty of home runs this season. Bibee gets a juicy matchup against the Yankees, but he’s stuck pitching in Cleveland, one of the toughest parks in the league for long balls. Kremer, on the other hand, faces the Nationals, who sit middle of the pack in home runs (tied for 14th). It’s a fine spot to take a flier, but when you factor in pitching style and the hittable stuff they serve up, I still prefer someone like Bailey Ober in this range.

Batter Report

Still waiting on starting lineups so this will update accordingly, but let’s take a first stab at analyzing some of the batter matchups.

Here’s a look at some batter stats courtesy of baseballsavant.

Despite his five home runs, Eugenio Suárez has really struggled against right-handed pitching this season, batting just .159. I’d take him out of the equation and instead focus on Corbin Carroll, Pavin Smith, and Josh Naylor.

Carroll’s odds are dropping, and when you look at how he’s been hitting over the past week compared to Smith and Naylor, it makes those two look even more appealing. All three are viable plays, but I’m leaning toward Pavin Smith based on his Barrel% and exit velocity metrics.

We’ll wait for the official lineup, but given the matchup and his recent form, I like Smith’s odds tonight.

Andrew Vaughn’s Barrel% is impossible to ignore—and he’s already taken Bailey Ober deep twice in his career. At +450, there’s solid value here for a guy with his kind of power and history against this matchup.

If you’re looking to roll the dice, Brooks Baldwin is an intriguing long shot. He’s only had three appearances against Ober but managed to leave the yard once. He prefers right handed pitching so at +830, it’s a high-risk, high-reward play—but definitely one that could pay off if you’re feeling bold. If he’s in the lineup tonight I might put a small unit play on him.

Corbin’s been getting shelled by right-handed hitters, but Rooker’s odds are just too low to offer much value. Instead, I’ve got my eye on Shea Langeliers.

He’s crushing lefties this season—batting .462 with a .962 slugging percentage. Combine that with solid exit velocity and Barrel% numbers, and he looks like a prime candidate to take Corbin deep. At +350, there’s real value here. Don’t be surprised if he leaves the yard tonight. One cheeky play could be Luis Urias if he makes it into the starting lineup. He’s 4/11 against Corbin in his career with one long ball. Could be a decent long shot. Again, let’s wait for the lineups but it could be a small unit play.

The Official Picks

I will update this article once the lineups are solidified but at the moment we’re looking at:

Update: We’re locked in.

1. Pavin Smith +460
2. Andrew Vaughn +450
3. Shea Langeliers +350
   
   with a small small small look at Brooks Baldwin and Luis Urias.

The Nick Castellanos vs. Tragic Events Home Run Meter

Current status: medium

The internet lit up yesterday after news broke of Pope Francis’s passing, and naturally, everyone rushed to hammer the Castellanos home run prop. It didn’t hit—leaving us all asking: Is today the day?

Now, technically, betting the day after the event breaks Castellanos lore, so we’re bumping the meter to medium rather than going full-blown must-play. Still… keep an eye on it.

Happy Dinger Tuesday folks. Thanks Big Al.