Dinger Tuesday Picks – Tuesday April 29th

Key Info:

1. Hold off on placing any dinger bets until starting lineups are confirmed. Major sportsbooks will grade your bet as action even if your player only gets a single pinch-hit appearance — and we want to avoid that headache.
2. We may post this article early to get the handicapping wheels turning, but it will be updated as lineups are confirmed and weather conditions develop.

Recap

Another profitable Tuesday is in the books!

We went 1-for-3 last week, thanks to Pavin Smith’s third-inning bomb. And if you tailed the two long shots of the week, you picked up a bonus cash on Luis Urías too — a nice little boost. Shout out to the riders.

Top MLB Resources:

• Today's MLB Games
• Parlay Calculator
• Greg Peterson's MLB Daily Lines
• MLB Odds
• MLB Betting Splits

Tough break on Shea Langeliers. The Rangers-Athletics game turned into a full-on home run derby… just not for our guy. Still, I’ll stand by the call — the handicapping was there, even if the box score didn’t cooperate.

What is Dinger Tuesday?

If this is your first Dinger Tuesday, here’s a quick recap: FanDuel offers 50% profit boosts on any home run prop—eligible on one bet, every Tuesday. This works on both straight bets or parlays. Additionally, DraftKings is featuring a “No Sweat Home Run Bet,” allowing you to place a home run prop wager with a safety net—if your bet loses, you receive a bonus bet refund.

Every Tuesday you can expect home run prop bet handicapping here at VSiN, analyzing weather conditions, ballpark factors, batter vs pitcher matchups, extended splits, and more. It’s a great way to have a little fun on some exciting long shot bets. Let’s dive in.

Weather & Ballpark Report

I’m spotlighting three ballparks today, thanks to a juicy combo of great weather conditions and proven home run trends — and if you’re hunting for dinger angles, these are your top targets.

Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati is the standout. We’ve got a 49% HR boost according to BallparkPal thanks to hitter-friendly weather (warm temps and a wind pattern blowing straight out). Combine that with a park that ranks #8 in home run factor, truly #1 over if you consider the last 3 years. This place can really turn into a launchpad in the right conditions — which we have. Please note that the strong winds carrying out to left field could also mean thunderstorms later. This one has a chance for postponement, but I’ll keep you updated.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards is another green light. The weather’s prime, with sunshine and wind blowing out. More importantly, Camden ranks #2 in HR factor (138) and #1 in xwOBAcon, making it an elite long ball venue. Even post-fence move, the ball still flies here — especially for righties who can pull it with loft.

Dodger Stadium? Sneaky. While the HR weather impact is flat today (0%), LA ranks #4 in raw HRs given up (#3 over the last 3 years) and sits in the top tier of hard-hit rates and power metrics. What makes it attractive here is volume: this park yields big contact and with warm west coast nights, the ball can still carry.

I’ll also be playing the matchups heavily in the ballparks above but in case you want to do your own handicapping here are some other options you can look at:

Citizens Bank is quietly hot with a +35% HR boost today and a solid #14 HR factor. Progressive Field also draws intrigue with a +20% weather edge and a lineup in MIN @ CLE that’s packed with fly ball power. You also have some decent pitching matchups there as well, could be worth taking a deeper look.

Pitcher Report

There’s a few pitchers I like today who we can look to take advantage of. Here’s the top ones:

1. Miles Mikolas

Miles Mikolas is an intriguing target today. Despite carrying a 5.70 ERA, he’s yet to give up a single home run this season — a stat that screams regression. In 2024, Mikolas ranked 14th in the league for most homers allowed, and he cracked the top 20 the year before. With ideal launch conditions in Cincinnati, this feels like the perfect setup for a return to form — and by form, we mean balls leaving the yard.

2. Carlos Rodón

Carlos Rodón is a home run machine. He tied for second in the majors last season with 31 long balls allowed and has already surrendered five this year. The historical matchup only strengthens the case — Baltimore hitters have a .314 average and three homers in just 35 career at-bats against Rodón. Not too shabby at all. With good odds across the board today, I’ll look to find a righty who has potential to go yard.

3. Kyle Gibson

I’m sticking with the same game to explore both sides of the matchup. Kyle Gibson makes his first start of the season for the Orioles after signing a one-year deal on Friday. At 37, he’s not a home run leader, but he did finish 14th in the NL last year in homers allowed. Now he’s up against what might be the most dangerous power lineup in baseball — with the exact conditions that could make his debut a rocky one. A little rust wouldn’t be surprising, and this sets up as a prime spot for us to capitalize.

4. Sandy Alcántara and the Miami Marlins Bullpen

I know this might sound like a strange play, but hear me out. Normally, you’re not rushing to fade a former Cy Young winner — but this spot feels like a sneaky opportunity. Sandy Alcántara is off to a rough start in 2025, posting a 6.56 ERA through his first five games, and now he’s flying west to east to face one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball. What really pushes this over the top is the Miami bullpen. They’ve already coughed up 16 home runs this season, making them one of the worst relief units in the league. If Alcántara struggles early, this could easily turn into a home run fest at Dodger Stadium. Plus, with this angle flying a little under the radar, we might even catch some nice odds on Dodgers hitters today.

Batter Report

Still waiting on starting lineups so this will update accordingly, but let’s take a first stab at analyzing some of the batter matchups.

Reds:

I’m really liking Matt McLain today for a few reasons. The wind is blowing hard out to left field, and we’re looking for a righty who can take advantage of that short porch. McLain’s been cold lately, with just one hit over the past week — but he’s always been much more comfortable at home. That lone hit came yesterday, right here in Cincinnati, and with today’s hitter-friendly conditions, this feels like a great spot for McLain to break out and send one over the fence.

Orioles

Ramón Laureano quietly checks a lot of boxes today. He’s got one of the highest barrel rates on the Orioles, is hitting .500 lifetime against Rodón, and is coming off a strong night — 2-for-3 with a pair of doubles. With the wind blowing out to left, we were already targeting a righty with pop, and Laureano fits the bill. At +680, this feels like a no-brainer value play.

Yankees

Plenty to like when you’re staring down a Yankees team with 46 home runs on the year. One name that really jumps out to me is Trent Grisham. His odds stand out, and the matchup lines up nicely. Grisham thrives against right-handed pitching and has done his best work on the road — 4 of his 7 homers have come away from Yankee Stadium. With three homers in his last 5 games I think he continues to stay hot with another one tonight.

Dodgers

There are plenty of tempting odds on the board today, but the one I’m loving most is Mookie Betts. He hasn’t been lighting it up lately, but he’s 6-for-13 lifetime against Alcántara with two home runs — and that track record matters. His odds are currently sitting at +680, which feels downright crazy. Mookie hasn’t gone deep in two weeks, and this sets up as the perfect bounce-back spot.

I’ll also add — this feels like a prime opportunity to take some shots on other Dodgers hitters. The odds are better today than we’ve seen all season, and they’re facing a struggling Sandy Alcántara backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball. Sure, there’s some risk — Alcántara could dial it in — but with these odds and this matchup, it’s well worth the gamble.

The Official Picks

I will update this article once the lineups are solidified (as a reminder, I strongly recommend not to place bets until lineups are out) but at the moment we’re looking at:

1. Matt McLain +360 (in lineup)
2. Ramón Laureano +680 (in lineup)
3. Trent Grisham +470 (in lineup)
4. Mookie Betts +680

The Nick Castellanos vs. Tragic Events Home Run Meter

Current status: low

Been a little bit since Castellanos went long. I guess the world is in a good place?

Happy Dinger Tuesday folks. Let’s get it Al.