Dinger Tuesday Picks – Tuesday May 6th

Key Info:

1. Hold off on placing any dinger bets until starting lineups are confirmed. Major sportsbooks will grade your bet as action even if your player only gets a single pinch-hit appearance — and we want to avoid that headache.
2. This article will be posted before lineups are out, but it will be updated as lineups are confirmed and weather conditions develop.

Recap

A sweet, sweet cash on Trent Grisham at +470 makes it three straight winning weeks — and the pressure’s officially on to make it four.

If you tailed last week, you got to kick back and relax early as Grisham led off the game with a missile over the right field fence. Unfortunately, the rest of the ticket didn’t follow suit. Ramón Laureano went 0-for-3, Carlos Rodón turned in a gem, and then… there’s Mookie. At +680, they got me. I couldn’t resist. Alcántara did get shelled and left before the third inning, but despite the Dodgers dropping 15 runs, we saw barely any balls leave the yard.

But that’s behind us now. It’s a new week. The slate is set. And I’m feeling juiced for this Dinger Tuesday.

Let’s find our spots — and go for four.

What is Dinger Tuesday?

If this is your first Dinger Tuesday, here’s a quick recap: FanDuel offers 50% profit boosts on any home run prop—eligible on one bet, every Tuesday. This works on both straight bets or parlays. Additionally, DraftKings is featuring a “No Sweat Home Run Bet,” allowing you to place a home run prop wager with a safety net—if your bet loses, you receive a bonus bet refund.

Every Tuesday you can expect home run prop bet handicapping here at VSiN, analyzing weather conditions, ballpark factors, batter vs pitcher matchups, extended splits, and more. It’s a great way to have a little fun on some exciting long shot bets. Let’s dive in.

Weather & Ballpark Report

Home runs could be hard to come by today, as weather conditions across the league are less than ideal. According to BallparkPal, we’re seeing widespread downgrades, with wind blowing in at Wrigley, Busch Stadium, Chase Field, Kauffman Stadium, and even Coors — a rare red flag at one of baseball’s most hitter-friendly parks.

If you’re playing the weather angle, Steinbrenner Field stands out as the top option. Warm temperatures and wind blowing out to right make it the most dinger-friendly environment on the board.

A few honorable mentions:

Sutter Health Park (Sacramento, A’s) has a nice breeze pushing out to left. Sutter Health has been incredibly favorable to homers this season as well. Could be a play here.

American Family Field (Milwaukee) will have the roof closed, keeping conditions stable.

Angel Stadium is seeing some light wind out to left-center. Nothing major, but notable given it has seen a ton of homers this season. (3rd in the MLB)

With weather offering little help overall, today’s slate will lean heavily on pitcher matchups to find value. Let’s dig in.

Pitcher Report

I’ve put together a simple home runs per batter faced spreadsheet, which you can access [here]. It doesn’t tell the whole story, but it’s a great starting point when you’re looking to spot dinger opportunities.

I’m generally targeting one of two pitcher profiles:
1. A pitcher in bad form with a high probability of staying that way due to a tough matchup and conditions.
2. A pitcher in good form who’s due for regression — again, based on matchup and conditions.

Here are a few arms I’ve got my eye on:

1. Emerson Hancock – Mariners

Hancock’s off to an okay start this season, giving up 3 home runs through 80 batters faced. But take a look at his 2024 numbers — he allowed 12 bombs over 266 batters, the worst HR/PA rate on the board today. His Barrel% and Hard Hit% last year were among the league’s worst.

While he’s shown some improvement early this season, the setup today isn’t doing him any favors:

• Going against an A’s lineup that’s been swinging it well
• A hitter-friendly park and prime conditions in Sacramento.

On top of that we’re looking at a Mariners bullpen that’s already allowed 16 home runs (8th-most in MLB) with BallparkPal noting a 4.6% meatball rate — 10th-worst.

There are several candidates in the A’s lineup, and this could be a spot where I take a swing on two plays.

2. José Ureña – Blue Jays

Freshly signed by Toronto, Ureña is expected to start today after making just one appearance this year — a rough outing for the Mets where he gave up 5 runs and 2 homers in garbage time. The Mets quickly cut ties.

We’re likely looking at a bullpen day for the Jays, who rank 10th in HRs allowed per game. Add in a visit to Angel Stadium, one of the better parks for power, and this shapes up as a juicy spot for dingers.

3. Hayden Wesneski – Astros

Wesneski has already surrendered 6 home runs this season, and his 2024 home run rate ranks among the worst on today’s slate. His Barrel% and Hard Hit% against suggest the long ball is no fluke — he’s getting squared up often.

With the roof closed in Milwaukee, conditions are stable, and this feels like a solid spot to target Wesneski for a home run prop.

Batter Report

Still waiting on starting lineups so this will update accordingly, but let’s take a first stab at analyzing some of the batter matchups. Here are the odds from FanDuel.

Athletics:

Emerson Hancock gave up home runs to righties at 5x the rate he did to lefties last season. With the wind blowing out to left, this is a perfect setup to target a right-handed bat who can launch one. Brent Rooker at +300 is easily the top option on the board. Sure, 3:1 feels a bit short, but you’re backing a guy with elite exit velocity and hard-hit rates. Plus, he’s already taken Hancock deep — one homer in two career at-bats.

Bonus look: Luis Urías. He cashed for us a couple weeks ago, and his HR/AB rate keeps him in the conversation. At +680, I’ll sprinkle a little on him again.

Angels:

The odds board is juicy for the Angels, and if Logan O’Hoppe is in the lineup, we’re locking him in at +520. He’s tied for 7th in the league with 9 home runs and boasts a monster 20.6% barrel rate. More than two-thirds of his bombs last year came at home, and he’s already taken Ureña deep in his short career (1 HR in 6 ABs). This one screams value.

Brewers:

Jackson Chourio is due. No way around it. His last homer came on April 26, and he’s hit just .167 since. But this is a spot that sets up well. He’s 1-for-1 with a double off Hayden Wesneski, who throws a slider 35% of the time — and Chourio lives off that pitch. Four of his six homers this year have come off right-handed sliders.

At +520, this might be the best value we’ll get on him for a while. Worth a flier that he breaks out today.

I’m also eyeing Brice Turang’s odds at +1400. My guess is due to recent absences, Turang’s odds have dropped considerably. We’ll see if he’s in the lineup today, and if he is, Turang’s exit velocity and hard hit% are strong enough where +1400 is worth a shot. I’ll be going in on a small unit play here, something like .2.

The Official Picks

I will update this article once the lineups are solidified (as a reminder, I strongly recommend not to place bets until lineups are out) but at the moment we’re looking at:

1. Brent Rooker +300
2. Logan O’Hoppe +520
3. Jackson Chourio +520

Small unit plays: Luis Urias +680, Brice Turang +1400.

The Nick Castellanos vs. Tragic Events Home Run Meter

Current status: low

Haven’t checked my stocks today. I think we’re alright…right?

Happy Dinger Tuesday everyone. Let’s cash some tickets, right Big Al?