Best Bets on Today’s MLB Player Props Market
We’re in the final stretch of the 2023 MLB season and VSiN continues to have you covered with every way you can possibly bet on a baseball game. As always, Adam Burke will have daily best bets to give you some ideas of what to back when it comes to moneylines, run lines and totals. However, I’m tackling player props here, and I’m targeting Justin Steele, Jake Fraley and Lucas Giolito on Monday, September 4th. Keep reading to find out how I’m betting on all of them.
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MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on September 4
Here are our favorite MLB prop bets for Monday, September 4th:
San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs (-142, 9)
Justin Steele still has an outside chance of winning the NL Cy Young, so I’d expect the lefty to pitch extremely well in today’s meeting with the Giants. Steele is 15-3 with a 2.69 ERA and 141 strikeouts and he now faces one of the worst offenses in baseball. Steele also happens to do so in Chicago, where he is 11-2 with a 2.46 ERA this season. The way I’m playing Steele in this game is by going to the Over on strikeouts. Steele has had at least six strikeouts in six consecutive starts and eight of his last nine. And San Francisco has the third-highest strikeout rate in the league against left-handed pitching, so it’s hard to believe he won’t go Over 5.5 strikeouts again here.
Bet: Steele Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-122)
Seattle Mariners (-162, 10.5) at Cincinnati Reds
This game has the highest total on the board today, so it made sense to attack this one with a player prop. I thought hard about going to the Mariners, but I ultimately found it tough to pass on Jake Fraley to go Over 1.5 total bases at plus-money odds. This season, Fraley is batting .287 with 14 doubles, 15 homers and 58 RBIs against right-handed pitching. He has been Cincinnati’s best hitter against righties all year long, and now I like him to go out and deliver against Bryan Woo. This isn’t exactly the best matchup in the world for the Reds, as Woo has been excellent lately. But I think Fraley will be able to come through with either an extra base hit or multiple base hits. He had done so in back-to-back games before going 0 for 1 on Sunday.
Bet: Fraley Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Minnesota Twins (-148, 8) at Cleveland Guardians
I’m going with another strikeout prop for today’s slate and it’s going to be Lucas Giiolito against the Twins. Minnesota has the highest strikeout rate in baseball this season, so the Twins have been a target of mine with strikeout props all season. And Giolito is a pitcher that misses a lot of bats, so I don’t see any reason to go away from the strategy here. Giolito has had at least seven strikeouts in two of his last four starts, and he has also reached that mark in 11 of his 27 starts this year. On top of that, Giolito has had at least seven strikeouts in all three of his outings against Minnesota this season. So, I like him to do it again and I think these odds are pretty fair. Giolito should also be amped up to prove himself in front of his new fans.
Bet: Giolito Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-139)
Did you know that you can parlay these three picks together at +588 odds? Try out our VSiN Parlay Calculator HERE!
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