Best Bets on Today’s MLB Player Props Market
The 2023 MLB season is underway and VSiN has you covered with every way you can possibly bet on a baseball game. As always, Adam Burke will have daily best bets to give you some ideas of what to back when it comes to moneylines, run lines and totals. However, I’m tackling player props here, and I’m targeting Mitch Keller, Nick Senzel and Jurickson Profar on Wednesday, May 31st. Keep reading to find out how I’m betting on each of them.
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MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on May 31
Here are our favorite MLB prop bets for Wednesday, May 31st:
Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants (-120, 8)
It really feels like we should be playing the over on Mitch Keller’s strikeout prop until it loses. The 27-year-old has now racked up at least eight strikeouts in each of his last six starts, and he somehow did it last game despite giving up six earned runs in 6.0 innings of work. Keller doesn’t have the most dominant looking stuff, but he is finding ways to fool hitters. And his confidence is through the roof right now.
Keller also happens to be facing a Giants team that strikes out very often. San Francisco has the second-highest strikeout rate in baseball this season, and the team also has the third-highest strikeout rate in MLB against righties. The latter is especially concerning for the Giants, as they can usually be relied on to hit righties a bit harder.
You must lay a little juice on this play, but how can you not do it? Keller has had at least seven strikeouts in nine of his 11 starts this season.
Bet: Keller Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-130)
Cincinnati Reds at Boston Red Sox (-165, 10.5)
Nick Senzel is becoming one of my favorite players to back on the props market, as he is generally listed at plus-money odds to do damage against left-handed pitching. Well, Senzel is batting .463 with two doubles, two homers and nine RBIs against southpaws this season. And he now gets another crack at one, with James Paxton taking the mound for the Red Sox.
Paxton has a 5.14 ERA over three starts this season, and he’s coming off a year in which he didn’t start a single game. The lefty has been banged up for years now, with 2019 being the last time he made it through a full season. With that time off, Paxton’s stuff has diminished. That makes him a very attackable pitcher, and I think Senzel will come through at the plate against him.
Bet: Senzel Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks (-165, 10)
Tonight’s meeting between the Rockies and Diamondbacks has the second-highest total on the slate, so we’re attacking it with another batter prop. Would it be better if this one was played at Coors Field? Sure. But Arizona is another hitter-friendly environment, and I think Jurickson Profar could be in for a big game here.
Profar is a switch hitter that enjoys facing right-handed pitching, but he can do well in the occasional matchup against a lefty. And Tommy Henry isn’t exactly a great one. The 25-year-old rarely works deep in games, and he hasn’t proven that he is a shutdown option to this point. With that said, I like Profar at plus-money odds to come through with two total bases. Henry gave up four earned runs in 5.1 innings in his only start against the Rockies this year, and he also gave up seven hits in that game. Profar took him yard there, too.
UPDATE: Profar is out of the lineup tonight.
Bet: Profar Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Did you know that you can parlay these three picks together at +795 odds? Try out our VSiN Parlay Calculator HERE!
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