Best Bets on Today’s MLB Player Props Market
The 2023 MLB season is underway and VSiN has you covered with every way you can possibly bet on a baseball game. As always, Adam Burke will have daily best bets to give you some ideas of what to back when it comes to moneylines, run lines and totals. However, I’m tackling player props here, and I’m targeting Ozzie Albies, Alec Marsh and Alex Cobb on Wednesday, July 5th. Keep reading to find out how I’m betting on all of them.
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MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on July 5
Here are our favorite MLB prop bets for Wednesday, July 5th:
Atlanta Braves (-165, 10) at Cleveland Guardians
The Braves look like today’s best team to attack with hitter props, as they’re favored in a game that’s tied for the highest total on the board. Atlanta also happens to be going up against Cal Quantrill, who is just 2-5 with a 6.18 ERA this season. And Quantrill hasn’t been much better at home than he is on the road, as he is 1-3 with a 6.04 ERA in five starts at Progressive Field this year.
When looking for the player that might get to Quantrill in this one, it’s hard not to like Ozzie Albies. Albies has had some success against Quantrill already in his career, as he is 2 for 5 with a double and a triple against the righty. That’s nice to see for Albies, who hasn’t been great against right-handed pitching this year. But it’s hard not to love that the second baseman has already had two extra base hits against Quantrill in the past. All we need is one from him to cash this bet, but I wouldn’t rule out a multi-hit game either.
Bet: Albies Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120)
Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins (-250, 8.5)
Alec Marsh made his first MLB start on Friday, June 30th, when he gave up four earned runs in 4.0 innings of work against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Marsh did, however, strike out five batters in that game, and he also threw 95 pitches in that one. That means he has the capacity to work somewhat deep into games, so pitch count shouldn’t be of a much concern here. That’s crucial when looking at his strikeout total for tonight, which I think is a little too low at 4.5.
If Marsh was able to reach five strikeouts against the Dodgers, one would think the 25-year-old has it in him to do the same against the Twins. Minnesota has the highest strikeout rate in baseball against right-handed pitching this year, and it isn’t exactly close either. The Twins have a strikeout rate of 27.0% against righties, and the Mariners have the second highest one at 25.6%.
Marsh does give up a lot of hard contact, but he was also a high-strikeout pitcher in the minors in 2022 — especially against righties. With that in mind, it just makes a lot of sense to back this total while it’s still low. I have a feeling you won’t get many chances to back him at 4.5 moving forward.
Bet: Marsh Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+104)
Seattle Mariners at San Francisco Giants (-170, 8)
I just mentioned that the Mariners are second in the league in strikeout rate, so there’s the main train of thought behind backing Alex Cobb to reach the six-strikeout mark tonight. Cobb has already had seven starts this season in which he has struck out at least six batters, and that makes it easy to buy into him doing it again in this spot.
Cobb should also be fired up to be returning home in this game. Each of his last three starts have come on the road, but he now heads back to San Francisco. Cobb is 3-1 with a 1.43 ERA in six home starts this season, so it’s pretty huge that he gets this matchup in a favorable environment.
Bet: Cobb Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+120)
Did you know that you can parlay these three picks together at +722 odds? Try out our VSiN Parlay Calculator HERE!
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