Best Bets on Today’s MLB Player Props Market
We’re in the final stretch of the 2023 MLB season and VSiN continues to have you covered with every way you can possibly bet on a baseball game. As always, Adam Burke will have daily best bets to give you some ideas of what to back when it comes to moneylines, run lines and totals. However, I’m tackling player props here, and I’m targeting Pablo Lopez, Eloy Jimenez and Kyle Gibson on Friday, August 18th. Keep reading to find out how I’m betting on all of them.
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MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on August 18
Here are our favorite MLB prop bets for Friday, August 18th:
Pittsburgh Pirates at Minnesota Twins (-230, 8.5)
Pablo Lopez is 8-6 with a 3.66 ERA this season and has been cruising recently. The righty has allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his last five starts, and I think he’ll keep it rolling against the Pirates tonight. However, I’m playing him to pitch at least 6.1 innings instead of backing him to go Under 2.5 earned runs allowed, as you have to really pay up in order to back that Under.
Lopez has recorded at least 19 outs in only eight of his 24 starts this year, but he’s now facing one of the weaker offenses in the league. Since the start of July, Pittsburgh has the fourth-lowest wRC+ in all of baseball. With that in mind, I don’t see much getting in the way of Lopez easily navigating this Pirates lineup. The righty is worse at home than he is on the road by a pretty significant margin, but I think he’ll be able to figure it out against this lousy offense.
Bet: Lopez Over 18.5 Outs Recorded (+110)
Chicago White Sox at Colorado Rockies (-118, 12)
Peter Lambert will be on the mound for the Rockies on Friday, and the 26-year-old has a 5.46 ERA this season. That number gets a lot worse when pitching at Coors Field, where he is 1-2 with an 8.14 ERA on the season — with two starts and eight other appearances. Colorado just started stretching out the righty recently, so he’s not used to hurling many innings. But the results haven’t been great thus far, and he now finds himself as the starter in a game with a total of 12. So, I’m looking to the White Sox for some batter props here.
When sorting through Chicago’s numbers, it’s hard not to like Eloy Jimenez as the player to do some damage for us tonight. Jimenez has been one of the most dangerous hitters on the White Sox when facing righties this season, as he’s batting .286 with 11 homers and 12 doubles against them this season. Now, I like him to show off his power in a great matchup, and one that will be taking place in a hitter-friendly ballpark. And while these odds aren’t too favorable, they’re not as high as I thought they’d be either.
Bet: Jimenez Over 1.5 Total Bases (-137)
Baltimore Orioles (-185, 8.5) at Oakland Athletics
Kyle Gibson is coming off his worst start of the year, as he gave up nine earned runs on 12 hits in 5.1 innings against the Seattle Mariners last Friday. But Gibson has largely been solid for this Orioles team this season, so I’m expecting the righty to bounce back in a meeting with a lousy Athletics offense. Earlier this season, he gave up only one earned run in 6.1 innings of work against this Oakland team. But Gibson struck out only four batters in that outing, and I think he’ll be better with his swing-and-miss stuff this time around.
Gibson has had six starts this season in which he has struck out at least six batters, which isn’t the highest mark in the world. But this Athletics team has the sixth-lowest wRC+ in baseball this season, and the team has the fourth-lowest wRC+ when playing at home. And more importantly, Oakland has the fifth-highest strikeout rate in baseball this year. So, Gibson should be able to course correct a bit and miss more bats against the A’s here.
Bet: Gibson Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-121)
Did you know that you can parlay these three picks together at +563 odds? Try out our VSiN Parlay Calculator HERE!
