Best Bets on Today’s MLB Player Props Market
The 2023 MLB season is underway and VSiN has you covered with every way you can possibly bet on a baseball game. As always, Adam Burke will have daily best bets to give you some ideas of what to back when it comes to moneylines, run lines and totals. However, I’m tackling player props here, and I’m targeting Tylor Megill, Bobby Witt Jr. and Jon Gray on Friday, August 11th. Keep reading to find out how I’m betting on all of them.
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MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on August 11
Here are our favorite MLB prop bets for Friday, August 11th:
Atlanta Braves (-180, 9.5) at New York Mets
I don’t love backing a pitcher to give up more than three earned runs, but this is a spot in which I think it’s worth a shot. Megill has given up at least four earned runs in three of his last four trips to the mound, and he has also done it in six of his 16 outings this season. Now, Megill faces a Braves lineup that has the highest wRC+ in baseball.
The only positive for Megill is that this game is at home, where the righty is a lot more reliable. But Atlanta scored three earned on four hits in 5.2 innings against him at Citi Field back on May 1st. That was a game in which the Braves never quite had it going. Now, Atlanta comes into this contest after having scored at least five runs in four games in a row and eight of its last nine.
Overall, I just see the Braves getting to Megill early and chasing him from this game.
Bet: Megill Over 3.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+100)
St. Louis Cardinals (-112, 10.5) at Kansas City Royals
Tonight, Adam Wainwright takes his 3-6 record and 7.81 ERA to Kansas City for a meeting with the Royals. This Kansas City team has lost five of its last six, but the Royals had won seven in a row before that. So, this team isn’t quite as bad as its record. And I do believe Kansas City will be able to get to Wainwright here. After all, the Royals are barely underdogs in a game with a total of 10.5
When looking for a hitter prop to grab in the game with the highest total on the board, I decided to make the obvious decision and go with Bobby Witt Jr. The 23-year-old had a double in Thursday’s loss to Boston, and he’s a guy that can easily cash this play with one swing of the bat. He has been on a tear in August, batting .333 with three doubles, two homers and eight RBIs. And I just don’t see him having much trouble with Wainwright, who has a depleted pitch arsenal at this point in his career.
Bet: Witt Over 1.5 Total Bases (-140)
Texas Rangers (-115, 8.5) at San Francisco Giants
Jon Gray is 7-5 with a 3.72 ERA for the Rangers this season, and the righty has been very solid when he has been able to avoid injuries throughout his career. Tonight, I’m looking for Gray to reach the five-strikeout mark against the Giants, which is something I think he should easily find a way to do.
Gray has had six strikeouts in each of his last two starts, and he has had at least five in nine of his 20 outings this season. Now, Gray faces a Giants team with the fourth-highest strikeout rate in baseball this year. He also happens to be doing it on the road, where he has been much better this season. Gray is 4-2 with a 3.14 ERA when pitching outside of Texas.
Bet: Gray Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-110)
Did you know that you can parlay these three picks together at +554 odds? Try out our VSiN Parlay Calculator HERE!
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