MLB Player Props for Friday, April 12th
The 2024 MLB season is finally here. After another wild offseason and an exciting couple of weeks of Spring Training, we’re ready for some games that matter. This season, VSiN Managing Editor Adam Burke will have you covered when it comes to MLB sides and totals in his daily best bets column. You’ll also get some First Five Inning analysis from Jonathan Von Tobel. On top of that, our analytics guru Steve Makinen will feed you some interesting trends and systems on a daily basis. But I’ll be focusing specifically on MLB player props this season, dishing out at least three per day every Monday to Friday. With that in mind, let’s get into the plays for Friday, April 12th.
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Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox – 7:10 pm ET
Last season, Boston had the 12th-highest strikeout rate (23.3%) in the league against left-handed pitching. This season, the Red Sox have the second-highest strikeout rate (29.9%) in the league against them. This Boston lineup is built to do most of its damage against righties, so I’m looking to lefty Reid Detmers to stay hot with his swing-and-miss stuff. I have hit the Over on Detmers’ strikeout props in each of his first two starts, with the lefty striking out seven batters against the Baltimore Orioles in his first start and then striking out 12 against this same Boston team in his second. With that in mind, it’s hard for me to go away from him to reach seven at plus-money odds. Detmers worked hard on his fastball in the offseason, and his Stuff+ on that pitch has gone from 102 to 116. That has made him a completely different pitcher.
Pick: Detmers Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+124)
St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks – 9:40 pm ET
It’s not fun when you have to risk a lot to win a little, but I would be pretty surprised if we don’t see one hit out of Eugenio Suarez today. I had Suarez to go over his hits, runs and RBIs total the other day, and I’m asking much less of the 32-year-old tonight. Suarez gets a crack at Steven Matz this evening, and he has three hits in eight plate appearances against the lefty in his career. Of course, I always like to note when it’s a very small sample size, and it certainly is. But nothing about that is surprising. Suarez is a better hitter when facing left-handed pitching, and Matz isn’t overpowering or anything. So, Suarez should be able to make some good contact in this game, and I trust that he’ll find some space at least once.
Pick: Suarez Over 0.5 Hits (-160)
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers – 10:10 pm ET
Yoshinobu Yamamoto got lit up by the Padres in his first start of the year, giving up five earned in just 1.0 inning. But Yamamoto has bounced back since that rough outing, giving up no earned runs and striking out 13 batters in his last 10.0 innings on the hill. With that in mind, I like the idea of going to Yamamoto to strike out at least five batters against the same San Diego team that gave him trouble in his first start. The reality is that it shouldn’t surprise anybody that Yamamoto had some issues in Spring Training, and those issues bled over into his first start. There was always going to be a small adjustment with him coming over from Japan. But Yamamoto is starting to figure things out, and he has always had electric stuff. Now, I think his MLB player props will be profitable moving forward. His struggles have made his prices a lot more reasonable.
Pick: Yamamoto Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-136 – 1.5 units)
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