MLB Player Props for Friday, May 3
The 2024 MLB season is finally here. After another wild offseason and an exciting couple of weeks of Spring Training, we’re ready for some games that matter. This season, VSiN Managing Editor Adam Burke will have you covered when it comes to MLB sides and totals in his daily best bets column. You’ll also get some First Five Inning analysis from Jonathan Von Tobel. On top of that, our analytics guru Steve Makinen will feed you some interesting trends and systems on a daily basis. But I’ll be focusing specifically on MLB player props this season, dishing out at least three per day every Monday to Friday. With that in mind, let’s get into the plays for Friday, May 3rd.
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Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees – 7:05 pm ET
Marcus Stroman’s outs recorded total sits at 17.5 tonight, despite the fact that he hasn’t pitched 6.0 innings in any of his last four starts. But I like the righty to get back on track against the Tigers tonight. This season, only eight teams in MLB have a worse wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Detroit just hasn’t been able to consistently strike fear in opposing pitchers, and Stroman should be able to take advantage of that. Stroman also does a great job of inducing ground balls, as he has been well above the league average in ground ball rate in recent seasons. And if he effectively pitches to contact here, he shouldn’t run into too many issues with his pitch count. That said, I’m expecting the righty to work somewhat deep into this game.
Pick: Stroman Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-115)
Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros – 8:10 pm ET
Ronel Blanco is coming off a start in which he struck out eight batters in 5.2 innings against the Colorado Rockies. Blanco has now hit the seven-strikeout mark in two of his five starts this season, and that’s what I’m looking for from him tonight. Blanco has never been viewed as an elite prospect, but he continues to outperform expectations. And he has been superb to start the season, so I’m willing to take chances on him until he shows real signs of weakness. For now, Blanco looks like a guy with a lively fastball and a very effective changeup. And he carries some momentum into a start against a Mariners team that has the highest strikeout rate in the league against righties, by far. So, I like the plus-money odds on Blanco to go Over his strikeout total tonight. These are the types of matchups I generally hunt all season long.
Pick: Blanco Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+120)
Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers – 10:10 pm ET
Tonight’s meeting between the Braves and Dodgers has the highest total on the board, so this is where I wanted to go with a batter prop. And the player that stuck out as a good value is Freddie Freeman, who you can get at a reasonable price to have Over 1.5 hits, runs and RBIs. This season, Freeman is batting .292 with two homers and 19 RBIs. The lefty slugger has cooled off a bit after scorching hot start to the season, but he should be excited about tonight’s matchup. Charlie Morton will be on the mound for Atlanta, and Freeman has crushed him in his career. Freeman is 10 for 20 with three doubles, three homers and seven RBIs against the righty. And while that’s not a massive sample size, it’s not insignificant either. Freeman is also just much better against righties than lefties, and Morton’s stuff is no longer what it once was. So, I view this as a game in which Freeman should show up in a big way.
Pick: Freeman Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-125)
Thursday’s Plays
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