MLB Player Props for Monday, April 29th
The 2024 MLB season is finally here. After another wild offseason and an exciting couple of weeks of Spring Training, we’re ready for some games that matter. This season, VSiN Managing Editor Adam Burke will have you covered when it comes to MLB sides and totals in his daily best bets column. You’ll also get some First Five Inning analysis from Jonathan Von Tobel. On top of that, our analytics guru Steve Makinen will feed you some interesting trends and systems on a daily basis. But I’ll be focusing specifically on MLB player props this season, dishing out at least three per day every Monday to Friday. With that in mind, let’s get into the plays for Monday, April 29th.
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Tampa Bay Rays at Milwaukee Brewers – 7:40 pm ET
Ryan Pepiot only struck out four batters in a solid start against the Detroit Tigers on April 23rd. But the righty has been a good swing-and-miss starter all year, so I think moving his strikeout total down to 5.5 was a bit of an overreaction. Pepiot had struck out at least six batters in each of his previous three starts, and he already has an 11-strikeout performance to his name this season. Pepiot is also going up against a Brewers lineup that can struggle to make contact against righties. Milwaukee only has the 16th-highest strikeout rate (22.4%) against right-handed pitching this season, so it’s not like the Brewers are miserable in this regard. But they do have some rough games, and Pepiot undoubtedly has the stuff required to give them trouble. So, I’m taking a shot on this at a lower total, as I think his number will be 6.5 or higher on most nights.
Pick: Pepiot Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-130 – 1.5 units)
Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks – 9:40 pm ET
Mookie Betts is off to a ridiculous start to this season. Through 30 games, he’s batting .387 with two triples, six homers, 10 doubles and 23 RBIs. And as always, the superstar has crushed left-handed pitching. In only 48 at-bats, Betts is batting .400 with a triple, six doubles, a homer and eight RBIs against southpaws. And that’s ultimately why I’m going to him to have a big day at the plate tonight. Arizona is sending lefty Tommy Henry to hill, and the 26-year-old is just 1-1 with a 5.55 ERA this season. And overall, Henry is just extremely hittable. So, with this being a good matchup for Betts, in a hitter-friendly ballpark, I like his chances of having at least three combined hits, runs and RBIs tonight. And it’s nice that Betts is the leadoff hitter for the road team, as we know he’ll get a good number of at-bats tonight.
Pick: Betts Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-120)
Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres – 9:40 pm ET
While Elly De La Cruz is off to a blistering start this season, the Reds are just 25th in the league in wRC+ this year. So, this is a good matchup for righty Matt Waldron. And I’m playing him to record at least 17 outs tonight. Waldron is coming off his best start of the season, as he gave up just one earned run in 6.0 innings in a start at Coors Field. And I like the 27-year-old to build off that momentum, especially against an opponent like this. Waldron has only gone Over tonight’s number once this season, but there’s no reason he can’t do it again. Waldron generally throws more than 90 pitches, so his leash shouldn’t be an issue. He just needs to pitch effectively to contact tonight, and I think he will. I also love that this is out there at plus-money odds.
Pick: Waldron Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (+104)
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