MLB Player Props for Monday, May 6
The 2024 MLB season is finally here. After another wild offseason and an exciting couple of weeks of Spring Training, we’re ready for some games that matter. This season, VSiN Managing Editor Adam Burke will have you covered when it comes to MLB sides and totals in his daily best bets column. You’ll also get some First Five Inning analysis from Jonathan Von Tobel. On top of that, our analytics guru Steve Makinen will feed you some interesting trends and systems on a daily basis. But I’ll be focusing specifically on MLB player props this season, dishing out at least three per day every Monday to Friday. With that in mind, let’s get into the plays for Monday, May 6th.
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Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Pirates – 6:40 pm ET
I know that getting the Angels without Mike Trout is a great matchup for any pitcher. However, I think it’s a little crazy that you can get Over 2.5 earned runs allowed at plus-money odds with Mitch Keller right now. This season, the righty is 2-3 with a 5.18 ERA. The 28-year-old also has a hard hit percentage of 46.3%, which is the highest he has had since 2021. And his sweet spot percentage of 42.1% is a career worst. This has just been a tough season for Keller, who has now allowed at least three earned runs in three consecutive starts. He has also allowed at least three earned runs in five of his seven outings this season. With that in mind, I think it’s worth putting the fade on Keller, even in a solid matchup. The only thing that really scares me here is that PNC Park is just 24th in MLB in Park Factor this year, so this is a bad offense in what has been a pitcher-friendly environment. But I still like this play enough to give it a shot.
Pick: Keller Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+102)
Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins – 7:40 pm ET
Simeon Woods Richardson struck out at least five batters in his first two starts of the year, but he is coming off a rough outing against the Chicago White Sox. The righty only got through 3.2 innings in that one, giving up one earned run on seven hits. But I like Woods Richardson to bounce back tonight, at least in the strikeout column. This season, the Mariners have the highest strikeout rate (28.7%) in the league, so the matchup truly doesn’t get any better. And Woods Richardson is a pitcher that can really miss some bats. Sure, the righty showed more potential as a swing-and-miss pitcher a few years ago, with his stuff diminishing in his last few seasons in the minors. But I still like the life Woods Richardson has on his fastball, and he is capable of fooling a lot of hitters with his slider. That should be massive against a Mariners lineup that has a majority of its players striking out at a rate of 25.0% or higher. And a lot of that has to do with just poor plate discipline. A lot of these guys can’t help themselves when it comes to chasing. That’s why I’m willing to play the Over on Woods Richardson’s strikeout total, and I’m fine dealing with the juice to do it.
Pick: Woods Richardson Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-143)
Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Dodgers – 10:10 pm ET
Walker Buehler will be making his first MLB start since 2022 tonight, but the righty has been pitching in the minors. So, we should have a good idea of what to expect this evening. And I think the Marlins are going to get some hits against Buehler, even though Miami is just 18th in the league in batting average against righties. I actually think Buehler will end up being a high-end starter in the majors again, but it could take him some time. The righty has lost a lot of velocity on his fastball since entering the league, and his stuff just hasn’t been as lively since he returned from this latest elbow injury. That said, I think Buehler is going to be pitching to contact a little more than expected upon his return. Perhaps he’ll get his velocity back and turn into a reliable swing-and-miss guy again, but we haven’t seen it quite yet. And Buehler gave up seven hits in each of his final two starts with Oklahoma City, so opponents are giving him some trouble. I don’t see that changing against big-league hitting.
Pick: Buehler Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (+110)
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