MLB Player Props for Thursday, May 2
The 2024 MLB season is finally here. After another wild offseason and an exciting couple of weeks of Spring Training, we’re ready for some games that matter. This season, VSiN Managing Editor Adam Burke will have you covered when it comes to MLB sides and totals in his daily best bets column. You’ll also get some First Five Inning analysis from Jonathan Von Tobel. On top of that, our analytics guru Steve Makinen will feed you some interesting trends and systems on a daily basis. But I’ll be focusing specifically on MLB player props this season, dishing out at least three per day every Monday to Friday. With that in mind, let’s get into the plays for Thursday, May 2nd.
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New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles – 1:05 pm ET
The last time I took Carlos Rodon to go Over his strikeout total, he pitched 7.0 innings of shutout ball against the Oakland Athletics and only struck out four batters. But Rodon came out and struck out eight batters in a win over the Milwaukee Brewers in his next outing. The lefty has now had at least six strikeouts in two of his last four starts. And his ERA is all the way down to 2.48 this year. The lefty is just looking a lot more confident than he did in 2023, and it’ll be interesting to see how things go from here. But I like Rodon to miss some bats against the Orioles today. For as dangerous as Baltimore can be against southpaws, the team has the 12th-highest strikeout rate in the league against left-handed pitching in 2024. Also, Rodon hasn’t started a game against the Orioles since 2019, so none of these guys will have any familiarity with the 31-year-old. That said, I see Rodon doing a good job of racking up strikeouts in his first trip or two through the lineup. I also think Rodon will get his personal strikeout rate up rather soon. He’s down at 22.1% in 2024, but his velocity and spin rates look better than they did a year ago.
Pick: Rodon Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-132)
San Francisco Giants at Boston Red Sox – 1:35 pm ET
Michael Conforto has cooled down a bit lately, with his batting average dropping from .292 to .259 since April 16th. And Conforto is oddly batting only .244 against right-handed pitching this year, despite being a player that has mashed against righties throughout his career. However, it’s still extremely early in the 2024 season. So, Conforto has plenty of time to get himself going again. And I like his chances of coming through at the plate against Josh Winckowski. This season, lefty hitters are batting .368 with three doubles and eight RBIs in only 38 at-bats against Winckowski. So, the 25-year-old clearly has some trouble pitching to that side of the plate. With that in mind, this is a great opportunity for Conforto to make something happen. Winckowski has a hard hit percentage of 48.3% this year, and he also has a sweet spot percentage of 37.9%. So, the righty is begging for trouble.
Pick: Conforto Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-145)
Washington Nationals at Texas Rangers – 2:35 pm ET
I’m a little surprised to see that you can get big plus-money odds on Mitchell Parker to strike out five batters today. Sure, Parker has only had one start this season in which he has hit this mark, and his pitch count doesn’t get higher than the low 80s. Washington is being cautious with the 21st-ranked prospect in its deep organization. But Parker is capable of hitting this mark without throwing too many pitches, and he proved that when he threw only 73 pitches and struck out eight batters in 7.0 shutout innings against the Houston Astros on April 21st. The southpaw is now 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA on the season, so he is clearly giving big-league hitters a lot of trouble right now. And it’s just hard not to like the payout on this bet, especially considering how the Rangers hit left-handed pitching. For as good as Texas’ lineup is, the team has the fourth-highest strikeout rate in the league against lefties. And Parker’s swing-and-miss ability is one of the reasons the Nats are so high on him. He has racked up some impressive strikeout numbers in the minors.
Pick: Parker Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+124)
Wednesday’s Plays
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