MLB Picks Today:
MLB picks today, including Tigers vs. Guardians, Padres vs. Cubs, Red Sox vs. Yankees, and Reds vs. Dodgers.
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks for Tuesday, September 30.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
1:00 PM Eastern
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians
Tigers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal has been dominant all season with a 2.21 ERA and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 7.3. Guardians starting pitcher Gavin Williams may be due for regression on his 3.06 ERA, allowing 4.5 walks and 1.2 home runs per nine innings. He faces a Tigers team that ranks 22nd in run scoring in September with just over four runs per game, while the Guardians are 28th in run scoring at home this season with 3.9 runs per game.
Pick: Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Under 6.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 6.2)
3:00 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs
Though Cubs expected starting pitcher Matthew Boyd has surrendered at least four runs in five of his past seven starts, he will benefit from the wind blowing in at Wrigley Field on Tuesday. He faces a Padres lineup that ranks 23rd in run scoring on the road with just under 4.2 runs per game. Padres starting pitcher Nick Pivetta has a 2.87 ERA overall this season, but his 3.47 fielding independent is a concern, as his ERA rises to 3.55 on the road with nearly 1.5 home runs allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline -120 (Greg’s Handicap Cubs -128)
6:00 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Red Sox starting pitcher Garrett Crochet owns a 2.59 ERA with 11.2 strikeouts to just two walks per nine innings but has been even better on the road, where his ERA drops to 2.25 with 0.7 home runs allowed per nine innings. Yankees starting pitcher Max Fried has a 2.86 ERA with 0.6 home runs and 2.3 walks per nine innings allowed, but he is backed up by a bullpen that since July 1 ranks 26th in ERA at 4.85. In that same span, the Red Sox bullpen ranks seventh with a 3.58 ERA.
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline +112 (Greg’s Handicap Red Sox -112)
9:00 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers starting pitcher Blake Snell has been in peak form this season, allowing three earned runs or fewer in 10 of his 11 starts while posting a 2.35 ERA with 10.6 strikeouts and 0.4 home runs per nine innings allowed. Reds starting pitcher Hunter Greene has also been dominant with a 2.76 ERA, allowing 2.2 walks with 11 strikeouts per nine innings.
Pick: Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Under 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 6.9)
