MLB Picks Today:
MLB picks today, including Tigers vs. Guardians, Padres vs. Cubs, Red Sox vs. Yankees, and Reds vs. Dodgers.
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks for Wednesday, October 1.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
1:00 PM Eastern
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians
Tigers starting pitcher Casey Mize has a 3.87 ERA with 8.4 strikeouts and 2.2 walks per nine innings, allowing three runs or fewer in each of his past five starts. Guardians starting pitcher Tanner Bibee has a 4.24 ERA and 4.34 fielding independent with 1.3 home runs per nine innings allowed, but enters pitching as well as he has all season with four runs allowed in his past four starts. His ERA drops to 3.22 at home with just over 0.8 home runs per nine innings allowed. He faces a Tigers team that ranks 22nd in run scoring since September 1, averaging just over four runs per game. Meanwhile, the Guardians are 28th in run scoring at home this season with 3.9 runs per game, but their 3.45 bullpen ERA ranks second in the league.
Pick: Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Under 7 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 6.2)
3:00 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs
Cubs starting pitcher Andrew Kittredge will likely only go one inning to help Shota Imanaga with the righty/lefty matchups, as Imanaga has surrendered at least three runs in six straight starts. He carries an overall 7.20 ERA in the first inning this season but faces a Padres lineup that is 23rd in road scoring with just under 4.2 runs per game. Padres starting pitcher Dylan Cease has a 4.55 ERA, but his 3.56 fielding independent with 11.5 strikeouts and 1.1 home runs allowed per nine innings suggests positive regression. He is also backed by a bullpen that leads the league with a 3.05 ERA.
Pick: San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs Over 6.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.4)
6:00 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Red Sox starting pitcher Brayan Bello owns a 3.35 ERA despite just 6.7 strikeouts and 3.1 walks per nine innings. He faces a Yankees lineup that leads the league in home runs and overall scoring at 5.2 runs per game. Yankees starting pitcher Carlos Rodon carries a 3.09 ERA despite issuing 3.4 walks per nine innings for a 3.78 fielding independent. He is backed by a bullpen that ranks 26th in ERA since July 1 at 4.85, while the Red Sox bullpen ranks seventh in that span at 3.58.
Pick: Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.8)
9:00 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers starting pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto owns a 2.49 ERA this season with 10.4 strikeouts and just 0.7 home runs allowed per nine innings. He comes in having allowed only three runs across his past five starts and is backed by a lineup that leads the league in home scoring with over 5.5 runs per game. He faces Reds starting pitcher Zack Littell, who has a 3.81 ERA but a 4.88 fielding independent mark, with 6.3 strikeouts and 1.7 home runs allowed per nine innings.
Picks: Dodgers Run Line -1.5 -110 and Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Dodgers -1.5 -126 and Total 7.8)
