MLB Picks Today:
MLB picks today, including Padres vs. Mets, Guardians vs. Tigers, Mariners vs. Royals, and Marlins vs. Rockies.
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks for Tuesday, September 16.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
6:40 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes is the odds-on National League Cy Young Award favorite for a reason, posting a 1.92 ERA with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 5.21. He’s been supported by a Pirates lineup that is last in the league in home runs, yet he’s allowed two runs or fewer in 25 of his 30 starts this season. Cubs starting pitcher Cade Horton is the odds-on favorite for National League Rookie of the Year, allowing just five runs across his past 10 starts. However, his 2.70 ERA comes with plenty of contact allowed, with just 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings, leading to a 3.63 fielding independent mark that points toward regression. He’s supported by a Cubs lineup that ranks fourth in road scoring with over 5.1 runs per game.
Picks: Cubs Moneyline +115 and Over 7 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Cubs +106 and Total 7.1)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers
Tigers starting pitcher Casey Mize has been steady, posting a 3.83 ERA while allowing 1.3 home runs and 2.2 walks per nine innings. He faces a Guardians lineup that ranks 27th in scoring with 3.9 runs per game. Guardians starting pitcher Joey Cantillo has allowed a combined three runs across his last four starts, posting a 3.36 ERA this season. However, command has been an issue with 4.3 walks per nine innings allowed. He faces a Tigers lineup that ranks fifth in home run production at over 5.1 runs per game.
Pick: Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.2)
6:45 PM Eastern
Oakland Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox
Red Sox starting pitcher Connelly Early dazzled in his MLB debut with 11 strikeouts in five scoreless innings after a strong showing at the minor league level, where he posted a 2.60 ERA with 11.8 strikeouts and just 0.4 home runs allowed per nine innings. He’s backed by a bullpen that ranks third in ERA at 3.45. Athletics starting pitcher Jeffrey Springs has seen a career-low 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings with a 4.28 ERA and 4.78 fielding independent, allowing 1.6 home runs per nine innings. Behind him is a bullpen that ranks 25th in ERA at 4.66.
Pick: Red Sox Run Line -1.5 +136 (Greg’s Handicap Red Sox -101)
7:10 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets
Mets starting pitcher Clay Holmes has done a good job of limiting damage despite recording just 7.3 strikeouts and 3.7 walks per nine innings. He’s allowed only 0.7 home runs per nine innings with a 3.75 ERA. He faces a Padres team that ranks 23rd in road scoring with 4.2 runs per game and 29th in home runs on a per at-bat basis. Padres starting pitcher Michael King is making his second start since coming off the injured list after allowing two solo home runs in five innings in his return. Overall this season, King owns a 2.87 ERA with 9.6 strikeouts and 2.9 walks per nine innings. He’s supported by the best bullpen ERA in the league at 3.13.
Pick: San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 7.6)
7:40 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals
Royals starting pitcher Michael Wacha has prevented self-inflicted damage well this season, allowing just 0.7 home runs and 2.3 walks per nine innings. That’s helped him post a 3.45 ERA despite just 6.6 strikeouts per nine innings. At home, his ERA improves to 2.92. Mariners starting pitcher Logan Gilbert owns a 3.54 ERA overall with 12.5 strikeouts per nine innings, but that number jumps to a 5.29 ERA on the road, where he’s allowed nearly 1.8 home runs per nine innings.
Pick: Royals Moneyline +118 (Greg’s Handicap Royals -113)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers starting pitcher Freddy Peralta appears due for some regression from his 2.69 ERA. He’s issued 3.5 walks per nine innings, leading to a 3.64 fielding independent mark. He had a run of five straight scoreless starts before getting tagged for five runs in his last outing against the Rangers. Angels starting pitcher Caden Dana, a 21-year-old, has struggled in his four appearances, posting a 6.32 ERA with 2.3 home runs and 6.3 walks allowed per nine innings. He faces a Brewers lineup that leads the National League in scoring since the All-Star Break with over 5.6 runs per game.
Picks: Brewers Run Line -1.5 -120 and Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Brewers -1.5 -132 and Total 8.8)
8:40 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies
Marlins starting pitcher Eury Pérez has struggled recently, allowing three or more runs in four of his past five starts and carrying a 4.67 ERA overall. On the road, that number balloons to a 6.44 ERA with 2.2 home runs allowed per nine innings. He faces a Rockies lineup that ranks 29th in scoring at 3.7 runs per game and owns a bullpen ERA of 5.30. Rockies starting pitcher Kyle Freeland has a 4.97 ERA that jumps to 5.82 at Coors Field. He faces a Marlins lineup that ranks fifth in road scoring with over 4.8 runs per game.
Picks: Marlins Run Line -1.5 +106 and Over 10 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Marlins -1.5 -121 and Total 11.2)
