MLB Picks Today:
MLB picks today, including Phillies vs. Dodgers, Rangers vs. Astros, Mariners vs. Royals, and Blue Jays vs. Rays.
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks for Wednesday, September 17.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
1:15 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals starting pitcher Andre Pallante has had a rough stretch, allowing at least four runs in nine of his past 12 starts, pushing his ERA to 5.34 this season. Reds starting pitcher Brady Singer has a 3.94 ERA with 3.3 walks per nine innings but comes in pitching his best ball, allowing two runs or fewer in seven of his past nine starts.
Pick: Reds Moneyline -104 (Greg’s Handicap Reds -140)
7:05 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Rays starting pitcher Ian Seymour owns a 3.16 ERA with 11 strikeouts per nine innings, allowing only one home run and three walks per nine. He’s given up just five earned runs over his past four starts, though some unearned runs have tagged him. Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman has a 3.44 ERA with 1.1 home runs and 2.3 walks per nine, but he’s backed by a bullpen that ranks 20th in ERA since July 1 (4.42). Offensively, Toronto leads the league in run production since the All-Star Break with nearly 5.8 runs per game.
Picks: Rays Moneyline +112 and Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Rays +106 and Total 8.7)
7:40 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Angels vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Angels starter Jose Soriano has been at his best on the road this season, posting a 4.03 ERA overall with 8.2 strikeouts and 4.1 walks per nine, but dropping to a 2.66 ERA with just 0.4 home runs per nine allowed away from home. Brewers starter Brandon Woodruff has a 3.32 ERA with an excellent 11.2 strikeouts to 2.1 walks per nine innings and faces an Angels lineup that ranks 28th in on-base percentage.
Pick: Angels vs. Brewers Under 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 7.7)
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals
Royals starter Cole Ragans is making his first MLB start since June 5. In three minor league outings, he struck out 20 in 10 1/3 innings but also surrendered a pair of home runs, posting a 5.18 ERA. His 2.47 FIP, however, shows he was unlucky and due for positive regression. Mariners starter Bryce Miller has struggled with a 5.59 ERA, 1.7 home runs, and 3.4 walks allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Royals Moneyline -109 (Greg’s Handicap Royals -134)
8:10 PM Eastern
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros
Rangers starter Jacob deGrom owns a 2.89 ERA with 9.5 strikeouts and 1.9 walks per nine innings. He faces an Astros lineup that ranks last in the American League in scoring since the All-Star Break at under 4.1 runs per game. Houston sends Cristian Javier to the mound, who has a 4.78 ERA with 4.5 walks per nine and has allowed at least four runs in three of his past four starts.
Pick: Rangers Moneyline -122 (Greg’s Handicap Rangers -144)
8:40 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies
Rockies starter McCade Brown has been roughed up at the MLB level, allowing 15 runs in 13 2/3 innings across four starts for a 9.88 ERA after never pitching above Double-A. Colorado’s bullpen hasn’t helped, ranking 29th in ERA at 5.30. He faces a Marlins offense that ranks fifth in road scoring with 4.8 runs per game. Miami starter Ryan Weathers is making his second start since coming off the injured list, tossing five scoreless innings against the Nationals last week. He owns a 2.73 ERA with 8.2 strikeouts and 2.4 walks per nine innings this season.
Picks: Marlins Run Line -1.5 -105 and Over 10.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Marlins -1.5 -128 and Total 11.2)
10:10 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
After a good start to the season, Phillies starter Jesus Luzardo has struggled since May 31, posting a 5.26 ERA with 3.4 walks per nine innings. He faces a Dodgers lineup that leads MLB in home scoring at 5.6 runs per game. Dodgers starter Blake Snell has allowed at least three runs in two of his past three starts. While his ERA sits at 2.79, his 4.3 walks per nine are concerning, and his 10.2 strikeouts per nine mark his lowest rate since 2017.
Pick: Phillies vs. Dodgers Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.6)
