MLB Picks Today:
MLB picks today, including Tigers vs. Guardians, Padres vs. Mets, Blue Jays vs. Rays, and Angels vs. Brewers.
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks for Thursday, September 18.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
1:10 PM Eastern
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers
Tigers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal left his last start against the Miami Marlins early as a precaution, but all went well with his throwing session a few days ago. He looks to get back on track after allowing just one earned run over his four starts prior to the Miami outing. Overall this season, he owns a 2.26 ERA with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 8.0. Guardians starting pitcher Tanner Bibee has struggled to a 4.44 ERA with career-worsts in strikeouts (7.9) and home runs allowed (1.4) per nine innings. On the road, his ERA jumps to 5.42 with 1.9 home runs allowed per nine innings. He faces a Tigers lineup that ranks fifth in run production at home with over 5.1 runs per game.
Picks: Tigers Run Line -1.5 (+110) and Over 7 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Tigers -1.5 -112, Total 7.6)
San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets
Mets starting pitcher Jonah Tong has had a rough introduction to the majors, posting an 8.49 ERA through three starts after dominating at the minor league level with a 1.59 ERA and 14.3 strikeouts per nine innings. He faces a Padres team that ranks 23rd in road production (under 4.2 runs per game) and 29th in home runs per at-bat. Padres starting pitcher Randy Vásquez appears due for regression on his 3.72 ERA, carrying a 4.94 fielding independent along with 3.6 walks and just 5.2 strikeouts per nine innings.
Pick: Mets Moneyline -126 (Greg’s Handicap: Mets -147)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Rays starting pitcher Shane Baz has struggled badly this season, posting a 5.15 ERA with 1.5 home runs and 3.3 walks allowed per nine innings. At home, his ERA rises to 6.28 with more than two home runs allowed per nine innings. Blue Jays starting pitcher Chris Bassitt owns a 3.90 ERA with 1.2 home runs and 2.7 walks allowed per nine innings, but on the road his ERA climbs to 5.42 with over 1.4 home runs allowed per nine innings. He’s supported by a Blue Jays lineup that leads the league in scoring since the All-Star Break with nearly 5.8 runs per game.
Pick: Blue Jays vs. Rays Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 9.2)
3:10 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies
Rockies starting pitcher Tanner Gordon has improved lately, allowing two runs or fewer in four of his past five starts, but still carries a 6.14 ERA. He faces a Marlins lineup that ranks fifth in road scoring with more than 4.8 runs per game. Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara owns a 5.53 ERA that spikes to 7.24 on the road.
Pick: Marlins vs. Rockies Over 10.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 11.2)
7:40 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Angels vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers starting pitcher Quinn Priester may be due for regression despite his 3.25 ERA, as his fielding independent sits at 4.13. He’s allowed just seven earned runs across his past five starts, averaging 2.9 walks and 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Angels starting pitcher Yusei Kikuchi owns a 4.05 ERA this season but has allowed at least five runs in three of his past four starts. On the road, his ERA climbs to 5.16 with 1.3 home runs allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Angels vs. Brewers Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.6)
