MLB Picks Today:
MLB picks today, including Cubs vs. Reds, Braves vs. Tigers, and Phillies vs. Diamondbacks.
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks for Friday, September 19.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
6:40 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds
Reds starting pitcher Nick Lodolo has a career-low 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings this season but also career bests with 1.6 walks per nine innings and a 3.30 ERA. Cubs starting pitcher Shota Imanaga appears due for regression on his 3.29 ERA, as he is getting only 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings while allowing 1.7 home runs per nine innings for a 4.59 fielding independent. He is backed by an offense that ranks 24th in runs per game since the All-Star Break with 4.1 runs per game.
Pick: Reds Moneyline +106 (Greg’s Handicap Reds -111)
Atlanta Braves vs. Detroit Tigers
While Braves starting pitcher Bryce Elder has pitched better of late with two runs or fewer allowed in four of his past five starts, he has still had a rough year with a 5.56 ERA. He faces a Tigers lineup that ranks fifth in run production at home with 5.1 runs per game. Tigers starting pitcher Charlie Morton has had struggles of his own with a 5.56 ERA, allowing 1.4 home runs and 4.5 walks per nine innings this season.
Picks: Tigers Moneyline -117 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Tigers -166 and Total 9.3)
Oakland Athletics vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Athletics starting pitcher Luis Severino has had a tough year with a 4.82 ERA and just 6.9 strikeouts per nine innings but has been much better on the road, posting a 3.11 ERA with fewer than 0.8 home runs per nine innings compared to a 6.51 ERA at home. He faces a Pirates team that is last in the league in home runs per game and overall scoring with 3.6 runs per game. Pirates starting pitcher Mitch Keller owns a 4.15 ERA with only one home run and 2.4 walks per nine innings allowed, and he has given up three earned runs or fewer in four straight starts.
Picks: Athletics Moneyline -104 and Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Athletics -108 and Total 8.2)
7:35 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Red Sox starting pitcher Garrett Crochet owns a 2.63 ERA with 11.3 strikeouts to just two walks per nine innings but has been even better on the road, where his ERA drops to 2.29 with 0.6 home runs per nine innings allowed. Rays starting pitcher Drew Rasmussen has a 2.74 ERA that might be due for a bit of regression, as his 3.80 fielding independent suggests. He pitches to a lot of contact, getting only 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings.
Picks: Red Sox Moneyline -126 and Over 7 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Red Sox -142 and Total 7.7)
7:40 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago White Sox
Padres starting pitcher Dylan Cease is getting 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings this season but owns a 4.58 ERA due in large part to issuing 3.8 walks per nine innings. He faces a White Sox lineup that is eighth in run production since the All-Star Break with over 4.9 runs per game. White Sox starting pitcher Davis Martin appears due for regression on his 4.01 ERA, as he is allowing 1.4 home runs per nine innings with 3.1 walks and 6.5 strikeouts per nine innings for a 4.83 fielding independent.
Picks: Padres Run Line -1.5 +102 and Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Padres -1.5 -114 and Total 9.2)
8:10 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
Astros starting pitcher enters Friday with a 2.25 ERA and 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings with only 0.8 home runs per nine innings allowed. Mariners starting pitcher Bryan Woo has a 3.02 ERA with 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings but is allowing 1.3 home runs per nine innings, and his ERA jumps to 3.58 away from home.
Pick: Astros Moneyline -106 (Greg’s Handicap Astros -142)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers starting pitcher Jacob Misiorowski has struggled since coming off the injured list, giving up at least three runs in five of his past six starts. For the season, he owns a 4.35 ERA with 3.8 walks per nine innings but is supported by an offense that leads the league in scoring since the All-Star Break with 5.8 runs per game. Cardinals starting pitcher Sonny Gray has struggled of late as well, allowing at least three runs in seven of his 11 starts since the All-Star Break for a 6.08 ERA with over 1.9 home runs per nine innings allowed.
Picks: Cardinals Moneyline +105 and Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Cardinals -109 and Total 8.4)
9:40 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Phillies starting pitcher Taijuan Walker has allowed at least four runs in four straight starts, raising his ERA to 4.17 this season. However, his ERA drops to 3.86 away from home, where he is allowing 1.3 home runs per nine innings compared to over 1.8 per nine at home. Diamondbacks starting pitcher Ryne Nelson owns a 3.34 ERA but a 3.74 fielding independent as he allows a lot of contact, getting just 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings. He is also backed by a bullpen that ranks 27th in ERA at 4.81.
Picks: Phillies Moneyline +110 and Under 9.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Phillies -106 and Total 8.8)
