MLB Picks Today:
MLB picks today, including Nationals vs. Mets, Red Sox vs. Rays, Mariners vs. Astros, and Brewers vs. Cardinals.
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks for Saturday, September 20.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
2:10 PM Eastern
Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins (Game 1 of Doubleheader)
Twins starting pitcher Joe Ryan has been about the most reliable arm the team has had this season, posting a 3.35 ERA with 10.1 strikeouts and two walks per nine innings. He’ll face a Guardians lineup that ranks 27th in scoring at 3.9 runs per game. Guardians starting pitcher Logan Allen owns a 4.36 ERA overall with 6.9 strikeouts and 3.7 walks per nine innings, which jumps to 5.01 on the road.
Pick: Twins Moneyline -120 (Greg’s Handicap Twins -146)
4:40 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets
Mets starting pitcher Nolan McLean has been magnificent since getting called up, posting a 1.19 ERA in six starts with just one home run allowed in 37 2/3 innings. He’ll face a Nationals lineup that ranks 24th in scoring at 4.2 runs per game. Nationals starting pitcher Cade Cavalli owns a 4.73 ERA overall, but has allowed three runs or fewer in five of his past six starts, with no home runs allowed in his last three.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 7.7)
6:40 PM Eastern
Oakland Athletics vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates starting pitcher Bubba Chandler has been better than his 5.66 ERA suggests, allowing three runs or fewer in four of his five outings, with one nine-run blowup against the Brewers ballooning his numbers. Athletics starting pitcher Luis Morales owns a 3.08 ERA across eight MLB appearances and faces a Pirates lineup that ranks last in both home runs and scoring at 3.6 runs per game.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.3)
7:05 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Red Sox starter Kyle Harrison makes his first start for Boston after beginning the season with the Giants, where he posted a 4.05 ERA with 9.1 strikeouts and three walks per nine innings. Rays starter Adrian Houser has struggled since arriving in Tampa Bay. After posting a 2.10 ERA with the White Sox, his ERA has climbed to 4.67 with 1.2 home runs allowed per nine innings over eight starts for the Rays. He faces a Red Sox lineup that ranks sixth in scoring at 4.9 runs per game.
Picks: Red Sox Moneyline -105 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Red Sox -111 and Total 8.8)
Miami Marlins vs. Texas Rangers
Marlins starting pitcher Adam Mazur owns a 4.85 ERA with 3.5 walks and 5.9 strikeouts per nine innings, but is backed by a lineup that ranks fifth in road scoring at 4.9 runs per game. Rangers starting pitcher Patrick Corbin has a 4.23 ERA this season, though he’s been much better at home with a 3.07 ERA and 0.8 home runs allowed per nine innings. He’s supported by a bullpen that ranks fifth in ERA at 3.58.
Picks: Rangers Run Line -1.5 +140 and Over 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Rangers -1.5 -101 and Total 9.2)
7:10 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
Astros starting pitcher Framber Valdez has struggled lately, allowing at least four runs in seven of his eight starts since early August, though he still owns a 3.59 ERA with just 0.6 home runs allowed per nine innings. At home, his ERA drops to 2.21. Mariners starter George Kirby has a 4.46 ERA with a 3.53 fielding-independent mark, along with 1.1 home runs and 2.2 walks per nine innings. On the road, his ERA balloons to 5.74 with nearly 1.5 home runs allowed per nine innings.
Picks: Astros Moneyline -110 and Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Astros -138 and Total 8.2)
7:15 PM Eastern
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Brewers starter Chad Patrick has made his last two appearances out of the bullpen, which may limit how deep he can go. He owns a 3.64 ERA this season with 9.4 strikeouts and three walks per nine innings. Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas is pitching to contact, carrying a 4.80 ERA with just 5.7 strikeouts per nine innings while allowing 1.6 home runs per nine innings. He faces a Brewers lineup that leads the league in road scoring at 5.5 runs per game and overall scoring since the All-Star Break at 5.8 runs per game.
Pick: Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 9.2)
8:10 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Angels vs. Colorado Rockies
Angels starter Kyle Hendricks is pitching to contact, owning a 5.01 ERA with six strikeouts per nine innings and 1.4 home runs allowed per nine. The Angels lineup leads the league in strikeouts, but also ranks third in percentage of road at-bats that result in home runs. Rockies starter Germán Márquez owns a 6.73 ERA with 12.4 hits allowed and just six strikeouts per nine innings, backed by a bullpen whose 5.33 ERA ranks 29th in the league.
Picks: Angels Moneyline -124 and Over 11.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Angels -156 and Total 11.6)
