MLB Picks Today:
MLB picks today, including Cubs vs. Reds, Guardians vs. Twins, Mariners vs. Astros, and Red Sox vs. Rays.
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks for Sunday, September 21.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
1:40 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds
Cubs starting pitcher Jameson Taillon comes in with his best form of the season, having allowed six total runs across his past five starts. Still, he owns a 3.93 ERA overall this season with a lot of hard contact allowed, posting a 4.88 fielding independent and 1.8 home runs per nine innings. Reds starting pitcher Andrew Abbott may be due for a bit of regression on his 2.88 ERA, posting a 3.68 fielding independent with at least three runs allowed in three of his past five starts.
Picks: Reds Moneyline -110 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Reds -132 and Total 9.2)
2:10 PM Eastern
Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins
Guardians starting pitcher Joey Cantillo has allowed a combined four runs across his last five starts, posting a 3.27 ERA this season with 10 strikeouts and 0.9 home runs per nine innings. He’s supported by a lineup that ranks 28th in scoring with 3.9 runs per game and faces Simeon Woods Richardson, who owns a 4.31 ERA with 3.9 walks per nine innings. That number has ballooned to a 5.27 ERA since the All-Star Break with nearly two home runs allowed per nine innings.
Picks: Guardians Moneyline -119 and Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Guardians -138 and Total 7.7)
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago White Sox
Padres starting pitcher Michael King has a 3.84 ERA with 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings overall this season but has been far from himself since coming off the injured list, allowing six home runs and 10 total runs across eight innings in his two starts. He faces a White Sox lineup that is eighth in scoring since the All-Star Break with 4.9 runs per game. Chicago sends Sean Burke to the mound, who has a 4.29 ERA with three earned runs or fewer allowed in each of his past eight starts, though he owns a 5.05 fielding independent with 4.4 walks and 1.5 home runs per nine innings allowed.
Pick: San Diego Padres vs. Chicago White Sox Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Total 8.7)
4:10 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Phillies starting pitcher Ranger Suárez owns a 2.84 ERA with 0.7 home runs and 2.2 walks per nine innings and sees his ERA drop to 2.25 on the road. He has allowed only four total runs across his last five starts while being supported by a lineup whose 5.5 runs per game at home rank second in the league, though their 4.3 runs per game on the road rank 20th. Diamondbacks starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez has a 5.12 ERA with 1.4 home runs and 3.5 walks per nine innings this season, but he has allowed zero or one run in three of his past four starts.
Picks: Phillies Moneyline -123 and Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Phillies -138 and Total 8.3)
7:10 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
Astros starting pitcher Jason Alexander has been better than expected since arriving in Houston, posting a 2.76 ERA in 12 appearances with 1.2 home runs and 2.6 walks per nine innings. Mariners starting pitcher Logan Gilbert owns a 3.53 ERA with 12.3 strikeouts per nine innings, but that number climbs to a 5.08 ERA on the road with nearly 1.8 home runs per nine innings allowed.
Picks: Astros Moneyline +122 and Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Astros -118 and Total 8.3)
7:35 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Rays starting pitcher Joe Boyle owns a 4.64 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 4.4 walks per nine innings, allowing at least four runs in three of his past four starts. Red Sox starting pitcher Connelly Early has dazzled in his first two starts with only one run allowed and 18 strikeouts in 10 1/3 innings. He’s backed by a lineup that ranks sixth in scoring with 4.9 runs per game.
Picks: Red Sox Moneyline -115 and Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Red Sox -127 and Total 8.8)
